Helene was forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly reach major hurricane status before an expected landfall in or near Florida’s Big Bend region.

Helene had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was about 115 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Once it moves closer to the Yucatan channel, it’ll have the opportunity to strengthen into a hurricane and then a major hurricane, the NHC said.

HURRICANE SEASON LATEST

Hurricane season Sep 23

State of emergency in Florida as tropical system expected to become a hurricane

Hurricane season 13 hours ago

DeSantis expands Florida emergency declaration for Helene, urges preparation

The forecast currently has Helene getting up to a major Category 3 hurricane as it approaches landfall by Thursday afternoon and evening in the Big Bend of Florida.

A hurricane warning was issued for the Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida, while a hurricane watch was in effect for Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

A tropical storm warning was issued for portions of Florida including the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge, while a tropical storm watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee and the Palm Beach/Martin County line northward to the Savannah River.

Storm surge watches stretched along the state’s Gulf coast from the Big Bend all the way to the Florida Keys.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded a state of emergency to 61 counties ahead of the storm, as some residents began to evacuate on Tuesday.

Tropical storm force wind is expected to extend well away from the center of the storm. South Florida's wind begins picking up tonight and into Wednesday morning. TS force conditions in the Lower Keys could last into Thursday! @nbc6 pic.twitter.com/Qzm5lWpGVy

— Chelsea Ambriz (@ChelseaAmbrizTV) September 24, 2024

Major impacts

Heavy rainfall will come with this system, increasing the flooding threat. The flooding rain looks to track well inland and into the midsouth into the weekend.

Due to how large this system is forecast to be, storm surge, wind and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, especially on the east side of the system.

Hurricane watches are place through the Big Bend of Florida while tropical storm watches extend down into the Lower Keys.

This system is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane before making a landfall on Thursday! @nbc6 pic.twitter.com/tqsImqd1iW

— Chelsea Ambriz (@ChelseaAmbrizTV) September 24, 2024

Timeline

Wind will begin to pick up Tuesday afternoon and evening across the South Florida area.

Outer rain bands from this system could start to move through the overnight hours on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Surge in the Florida Keys could be 1-3 feet as the system passes.

For South Florida, wind will be the main thing we feel across Broward and Miami-Dade counties. Gusty conditions take over Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Wind could be sustained 20-25 mph and gust 35-40+ mph. 

Scattered tropical downpours are expected starting overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

The scattered outer bands will last off and on into Thursday and lingering showers into Friday. Isolated and quick tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Rain totals should be 2-4 inches with localized areas seeing up to 6 inches.

In the Keys, winds are already starting to pick up and will continue to do so through Thursday. Sustained wind of 20-30 mph is expected with gusts of 50+ mph.

Rainfall totals will range from 4-6 inches, especially as we go into Wednesday, and this system is west of the island chain.

Rain looks to linger into the weekend. Storm surge will also be possible, with heights of 1-3 feet.

Helene was forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly reach major hurricane status before an expected landfall in or near Florida’s Big Bend region.

The forecast currently has Helene getting up to a Category 3 hurricane as it approaches landfall by Thursday in the Big Bend of Florida.

“[The National Hurricane Center] has never in their history forecasted a major at this stage of development,” DeSantis said at a news conference in Tallahasee. “I think the fact that this would be forecasted as a major at this point, without formation, shows that this has a potential to be a really, really significant storm.”

Tracking the Tropics 14 hours ago

Tropical Storm Helene could become a major hurricane as it approaches Florida

Hurricane season 18 hours ago

Florida residents evacuating as Tropical Storm Helene is expected to become a hurricane

DeSantis previously announced he was issuing a state of emergency for 41 counties ahead of the storm. Miami-Dade and Broward weren’t part of the declaration, but it did include Monroe County.

“The Big Bend and Panhandle should be especially prepared for a direct impact,” DeSantis said.

The area is still recovering from Hurricane Debby, which struck as a Category 1 in August, and Hurricane Idalia, which hit as a Category 4 in 2023.

“It is possible that we have an Idalia, Debby track… and this potentially could be even more powerful than Idalia, we’ll see. But it’s going to potentially impact areas that are in the process of rebuilding, not just in the Big Bend, but Panama City still,” DeSantis said.

The governor said he had activated the Florida State Guard, and 3,000 Florida National Guard soldiers were standing by, ready to assist.

DeSantis said impacts were anticipated “100, 200 miles outside of the eye of the storm, you could see with winds and you could see with surge. So if you’re in the Tampa Bay area, you anticipate that you’re going to see impacts. We could also see impacts in southwest Florida, just depending on what the track is.”

Outer rain bands from the system could start to move through the overnight hours on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Surge in the Florida Keys could be 1-3 feet as the system passes.

The governor said though there is some uncertainty about the storm’s track, Floridians have time to prepare for power outages, flooding and evacuations. Residents should ensure they have enough essentials, including food and water, for seven days.

Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie also encouraged people to heed evacuation warnings if they are implemented.

“People do not need to even leave their county in most instances,” DeSantis added. “It’s just getting away from when that water comes… The wind you can hide from. Anything that’s shelter in Florida is going to be able to withstand the wind, but it’s the water that can be really, really devastating.”

This is a developing story. Refresh for updates.

The Rattlers rescheduled the game for Friday, Nov. 29, in anticipation of Helene strengthening into a major hurricane Wednesday while moving north toward the United States. Several models have Helene making landfall just south of Tallahassee.

FAMU announced classes would be canceled beginning Tuesday at 12:15 p.m. through Friday, Sept. 27.  The University will be closed Wednesday through Friday.

Florida State, meanwhile, might need to adjust its travel schedule before playing at SMU on Saturday.

“We’re continuing to track that. There’s still a lot of information (to come),” Seminoles coach Mike Norvell said Tuesday. “Today is a big day for gaining more information of what could be our reality. I feel good about the plans that we have. I feel good about any potential adjustments, if necessary. But it’s something that we’re absolutely tracking.”

Florida State University officials said FSU’s Tallahassee campus will close on Sept. 25, at 7 a.m. ET, until 11 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 29, due to Helene. FSU expects to resume normal business operations at 12 a.m. Monday, Sept. 30.

Tallahassee State College announced they would cancel classes and close all campuses starting on Wednesday, Sept. 25, through Friday, Sept. 27 because of Helene.

Helene formed into a tropical storm Tuesday in the Caribbean Sea. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency Monday in dozens of counties ahead of its arrival and expanded it on Tuesday.

As of Monday evening, the anticipation of Helene had already prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for the Lower Florida Keys. Late Monday night, an additional watch was posted for the Southwest coastline of Florida from Bonita Beach to Flamingo.

The storm, forecast to become or be close to a major hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf over the next two to three days, is still sputtering in its humble beginnings. 

Once a bit more organization takes shape, the system is due to traverse into the southern Gulf of Mexico, growing an expansive wind field of tropical storm force winds.

As I wrote about last week, the Northwest Caribbean presents exceptionally high ocean heat content, sprawling across the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf of Mexico. Once a definitive center unfolds and the system matures, there will be plenty of warm water to fuel it.

The overall environment will support intensification to a hurricane tomorrow, with sweeping impacts up the Florida Gulf coast, well outside of the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track.

A large wind radius, prompting the Keys’ Tropical Storm Watch, will push water up the coast over the next few days. This will create surge concerns far away from the eventual landfall position. With that, a Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Florida’s Southwest coastline as well.

While not a direct threat to metro South Florida, its expanding wind field will prove problematic in a host of ways.

Wednesday’s weather will turn breezy, followed by passing rounds of downpours. Some of the heavier and more concentrated downpours could prompt some flooding concerns. While 2 to 4 inches of rain are feasible for the remainder of the week, locally heavier amounts are possible.

In the stronger bands of rain that swing through, wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible through Thursday, too.  Additionally, an elevated risk of rip currents will be expected as marine conditions, generally, remain hazardous.  

It’s important to note that a track that may bring the storm a little closer to the peninsula may change the impacts a bit. Please continue to monitor the forecast as “Helene” passes through the Gulf.

Helene will be the 8th named storm of the year. As mentioned, becoming a hurricane by Wednesday would mark the fifth of the season. Should it become a became a major hurricane, it would be just the second to do so.

While model guidance hasn’t changed dramatically regarding just where the storm ends up, fluctuations in the intensity forecast are possible for the next day or two. Focusing strictly on the forecast path only provides a snapshot of what the storm’s impacts will look like. Wind, rain and surge are expected to sweep the Gulf coast as the storm moves south to north. We’ve seen this before…

The watch, in effect until further notice, sets the stage for the evolution of Tropical Storm Helene in the northwest Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.

The storm, likely to grow in size and in strength, will have a large field of strong winds that could touch the Lower Keys Wednesday and Thursday.

Currently, the expectation is that winds could run at 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph with some of the stronger rain bands that sweep the area.

Locally heavy downpours will be possible through Thursday as rain totals of 3 to 6 inches remain possible from Marathon to Key West.

A storm surge up to two feet remains possible, based on the current track and trends. Adjustments would be made accordingly if the system tracks a little closer, or farther, from the Keys.

In metro South Florida, conditions are likely to change for the wetter on Wednesday, too. Passing downpours for the balance of the week could produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with locally heavier amounts.

While the winds won’t be as strong, breezy conditions with gust to 45 mph in a few rain bands cannot be ruled out.  While the wet pattern sustains for the rest of the week, the weekend should yield subtle improvements.

The system had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph as it moved north-northwest at 6 mph about 290 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba, the latest update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

A tropical storm watch was issued for the Dry Tortugas and lower Florida Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge and portions of the southwest.

Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches were also issued for portions of Mexico and Cuba for the system, which was forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.

The system was forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the NHC said.

Portions of Florida’s west coast and Panhandle were in the NHC’s potential forecast cone, but forecasters said storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system.

In a statement Monday afternoon, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced he was issuing a state of emergency for 41 counties ahead of the storm. Miami-Dade and Broward weren’t part of the declaration but it did include Monroe County.

Residents from coastal Louisiana to the west coast of Florida are encouraged to monitor the forecast for the next several days. While it is too soon to pinpoint where the system will ultimately go, the Florida panhandle, through the Big Bend area, could be focal point for impact later in the week.

Locally heavy rainfall, isolated severe storms and a dangerous rip current risk for both sides of the Florida peninsula is possible. 

For South Florida, the weather will be determined by the anticipated storm’s position and intensity. This could include breezy conditions, passing downpours, high surf and dangerous marine conditions.

The next named system for the 2024 hurricane season will be “Helene.”

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.

This week I’ve noticed how many new people now know about the Central American gyre (CAG). I’m getting questions about it from followers. And in what has turned into a below-average hurricane season by many measures, a lack of areas of interest in the tropical Atlantic means all eyes are laser-focused on the one area in which something — anything — might develop.

The reason the CAG (I prefer gyre) is suddenly in social media vogue is because it can serve as an incubator for new low pressure systems that can become tropical storms and hurricanes. The gyre, a large area of cyclonic rotation anchored in Central America and bridging the western Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans, is most active early and late in hurricane season. Since it’s starting to get late, the gyre is becoming more active.

From within this large area of unsettled weather, smaller low pressure systems can emerge. With favorable environmental conditions, a low pressure center can consolidate and strengthen to the point it reaches tropical storm strength. 

Hints that such a storm could develop started to appear in long-range weather forecast models last weekend. Not for this week, but for next week. That far out, there aren’t enough specifics to make conclusions. But again, with nothing else to talk about, the mere hint of a possible future Gulf of Mexico hurricane has been enough to garner a lot of (perhaps undue) attention.

Granted, there are multiple global weather models that support the development of a tropical storm that would first emerge near the Yucatan Peninsula and then dramatically strengthen over the record hot (yes, it’s global warming) Gulf waters. While originally that was supposed to happen by the middle of next week, the models have delayed that projection until very late in the week or the weekend of Sept. 28. The venerable European Center’s model, however, is not on board. 

For now, the National Hurricane Center has flagged an area of potential development in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf and given it a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the next seven days. If a system were to form there, it’s still unknown whether it would move northwest toward Texas or northeast toward Florida. We simply don’t know this far out.

As I’ve mentioned in this space previously, the Gulf of Mexico’s coast, including Florida, tends to have a lot more late-season activity than the eastern Caribbean. Puerto Rico, for example, is much more dependent on the Cape Verde season for its hurricane threats — and that season is about to end.

Therefore, Florida residents will need to continue to keep an eye on the tropics for at least another couple of months. I’m sure there will be no shortage of social media posts trying to garner your attention about a new hurricane heading our way.

Don’t believe everything you see…yet.

Although the region is quiet right now, computer model forecasts continue to point towards development. At this time, the National Hurricane Center has placed a low chance for development over the region with the idea that a tropical depression could form as soon as Sunday or Monday.

While the climatology of where this system could develop makes sense, this particular area of the Caribbean is reaching its peak heat for the year. While the sea surface temperatures are often discussed in tandem with tropical development, “ocean heat content” (OHC) is an important metric to add to the conversation. As University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy states, OHC is a “quantity that describes the thermal energy stored in a volume of the ocean.”

Think heat to fuel a storm, but at a considerable depth below the sea surface.

Under daily observation at UM’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric & Earth Science, their mapping is of particular interest for this development area.

As shown below, the northwest Caribbean presents exceptionally high ocean heat content, sprawling across the Yucatan Channel and south of Cuba. Given ideal conditions between moisture and favorable winds, the “fuel” is ready and waiting.

It remains uncertain to pinpoint precisely where and when an area of low pressure may develop. Yet for the last few days, computer modeling leans heavily on the idea of this season’s next storm bubbling up near the Yucatan.

Looking further north at factors of timing, location and steering patterns across the continental United States, it’s far too soon to know where a developing system would track. But there’s enough confidence that residents of the Gulf Coast states should keep tabs on the tropics in the coming days.

The next name up for use this season is “Helene.”

Although used as an Atlantic hurricane season name for decades, only once has this “H” storm made landfall in the United States.

In late September of 2000, Tropical Storm Helene made landfall near Fort Walton Beach.

All others have tracked well east of Florida in the open Atlantic waters with 2012’s Helene cruising the Caribbean with a landfall in Nicaragua.

Need to review your hurricane plan?  Have a look at the NBC6 Hurricane Guide here.

As that rainmaker winds down and lifts through the Appalachians today, the only named system in the Atlantic is Tropical Depression Gordon. This storm has struggled to hold its identity for the last 48 hours, drifting as a depression, with 35 mph winds, for the near term. Once it pulls north late week, it’s forecast to become a tropical storm once again.

Posing no threat to land, Gordon can be left to observe from afar.

Where does that take us from here?

Well, before that, let’s survey where we are in the season.

So far in 2024, seven named storms have been recorded. Four of those were hurricanes while only one (Beryl) became a major hurricane.

The next name on this season’s list is “Helene.”

While Helene shows up on the World Meteorological Organization’s list for storm names every six years, it’s not a name we’re overly familiar with. The last Helene to bring an impact to the US was in 2000. Before that, it was 1958.

But might we look closer to home for the next system this season?

While it’s too soon to pin down, computer models are pointing towards the Northwest Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico over the next several days.

While nothing is certain, being flexible to storms that develop closer to Florida is a disadvantage that the latter portion of the storm season presents.

Some of the computer models I mentioned before are interested in drumming up some activity after the weekend, allowing time to wait and see if something takes shape.

While I will not be posting any individual model forecasts or trends, the graphic I created below gives the general feel of where we should keep our attention focused.

Because it’s quite early, the National Hurricane Center has not yet inserted this thought into their four-times-daily outlook. That may change in the coming days.

For now, there’s no conclusion to draw or action to take. Let this simply serve as your reminder to pay attention amidst a season that has kept us on our toes, but never on our heels.

The designation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight allowed for the National Hurricane Center to issue the warning, in advance of the system’s likely maturity to Helene.

Helene would be the eighth named system of the 2024 season.

The Carolina coastline will be in for 3 to 6 inches of rainfall and a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet through Monday night.

As the system presses inland, rains will follow through western North Carolina and into the southern Appalachian Mountains as the system weakens.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Gordon will meander in the open tropical Atlantic for much of the week before lifting north.

While the system may re-strengthen into a tropical storm again, it poses no threat to land.

Otherwise, there are no areas of concern in the Atlantic basin for the next few days.

Francine struck southeastern Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mile per hour (mph) sustained winds, a coastal storm surge, and copious amounts of rain that led to a Flash Flood Emergency in New Orleans. The flooding rains then extended inland across Mississippi and Alabama. While Francine lost its tropical characteristics late on Thursday, weather impacts were expected to continue spreading into other states into the weekend.

Out in the distant Atlantic, west of Cabo Verde, a new tropical depression formed. The system was expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Gordon on Friday while moving at a relatively slow pace over the open ocean between Africa and the Antilles. In the long run, Gordon will struggle to survive due to hostile upper-level wind shear. It will not threaten land.

Two other disturbances were being watched by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). One was off the coast of the Carolinas along an old stationary front. It’s expected to slowly drift north or northwest near the Mid-Atlantic states and was considered to have a low chance for development. The second system was not far from the Leeward Islands with a minimal chance for strengthening due to dry air in its vicinity.

Circling back to Francine, it was the third hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season, after Beryl and Debby. Only eight other years since 1900 have had three or more hurricane landfalls by September 11, including 2004, 2005, and 2020 in this century. By that measure, plus beastly Beryl’s record-setting antics, 2024 is already an extraordinary hurricane season. However, by almost every other metric, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has suddenly become quite ordinary.

This is the week in which historical statistics caught up with the activity we’ve seen so far.

Early in the year, the Atlantic was running way ahead of schedule in terms of the number of hurricanes and — with Cat 5 Beryl forming so remarkably early — major hurricanes. But today is Friday the 13th, and by mid-September in a normal season, a second major hurricane would have already formed. Similarly, we’re now tracking below normal in the number of named storms and named storm days.

Other metrics are mostly on par with an average season. Four hurricanes versus an average of four by this date; 13 hurricane days versus the normal of 13 by now; and 4½ major hurricane days versus the climatological value of four by this date. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which considers the number of storms and their intensity, the season sits at 95 percent of normal.

I’ve been warning readers not to become complacent. The season could be backloaded. But time marches on, and for the eastern Caribbean, the end of the Cape Verde season is nearly in sight. Maybe it could extend beyond the last day of September, considering how warm the Atlantic waters are. But probably not much longer.

For the central and western Caribbean, Bahamas, Gulf of Mexico, Eastern Seaboard, and Florida, the active part of the season historically stretches even beyond the end of October.

There is still a ways to go.

Today’s focus will be squarely on Louisiana’s preparation for imminent impact from Francine tomorrow. With storm surge and hurricane warnings posted Monday, residents are on alert, bracing for a landfall sometime Wednesday evening. While a landfalling Category 2 is in the forecast, residents are being advised to prepare for a category higher as the storm’s intensity may ramp up as it starts to race northeast later today.

The last hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana was nearly three years ago in September of 2021. Hurricane Ida plowed through the coastline as a Category 4 storm with a surge of 9-14 feet and 150 mph winds.

This occurred just one year after a devastating hit from Category 4 Hurricane Laura in late August of 2020.

While Louisiana is no stranger to storms, their sensitive coastline will, again, absorb a storm surge that is forecast to peak at 5 to 10 feet.

While tracking Francine, we’re watching two other areas in the Atlantic basin. One area is an elongated area of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic. While it has been somewhat persistent in producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, conditions are only marginally conducive for development during the next few days. That said, a tropical depression could form while the system meanders over open water.

A little further east, a trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This set-up is more unique as it is expected to merge with a strong tropical wave currently near the coast of western Africa. It’s here that environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely develop later this week.

While all these items are interesting and deserve a look, there are no threats to South Florida on the horizon over the next several days.

Helene was forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly reach major hurricane status before an expected landfall in or near Florida’s Big Bend region.

Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six began Sunday afternoon, allowing the National Hurricane Center to issue tropical storm watches along the Mexican coastline.

The system was still ragged but organized enough, with 50 mph winds, to begin the storm monitoring process. 

A Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight provided the data needed to begin the advisories, which now will be issued every three hours.

Likely to mature to a tropical storm Monday, the official forecast calls for peak intensity to reach category 1 with 75 mph winds.

As the system moves north in the next day or two, continued strengthening is expected. 

The next name on this season’s list is “Francine.”

The official forecast takes the system toward the northern Gulf coast with impacts expected for Louisiana and Texas.

Additional watches and warnings for the western Gulf coast are likely in the next 24 hours.

The Texas coastline has already contended with a named storm this season when Beryl made landfall in the Houston/Galveston area July 8^th as a category 1 hurricane.

The system was responsible for widespread power outages that lasted for weeks, impacting hundreds of thousands of residents.

Additionally, there are two other areas in the open tropical Atlantic that will be monitored for development this week.

There are no threats to South Florida at this time. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane is Tuesday, September 10^th

Seems apropos for the beginning of football season. But it could also apply to the Atlantic hurricane season, especially after just a week ago, it seemed like we were poised for a barnburner in the basin.

Since Hurricane Ernesto scored its “touchdown” with a landfall in Bermuda last month, the following tropical disturbance “possessions” have ended in punts. The ones identified by the National Hurricane Center as potential star players have tried to move downfield, just to see their drives fizzle.

Is the air temperature too hot? Is the field too dry? Are the winds affecting the passing game?

It could be all of the above. Analysts have spent the week trying to dissect what might be happening. There are several hypotheses which, when put together, seem to point to a lot of global weirding.

The Atlantic waters are so hot that the band of thunderstorms (that from space looks like a white belt) encircling the planet has been displaced far to the north. I’m talking about the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which for a few weeks has been dumping rain over Saharan countries like Mali and Egypt. With the ITCZ so far north, disturbances continue to exit the African coast in locations that are downright hostile for development due to too much dry air above, and colder waters below.

It’s also hot in the upper levels of the troposphere, which is the part of the atmosphere where all weather happens. Yes, hurricanes thrive on warmth — just not warmth aloft. Warm air where the jets fly makes for a stable atmosphere, and stability leads to sinking air. You’re not going to see hurricanes forming when the air is sinking.

Also high above the ocean, opposite day continues. Easterly winds are roaring off the African coast near Senegal and across the Cabo Verde Islands. Hurricanes don’t like westerly wind shear. But you can’t slow the westerlies to the point where you reverse them and start tilting a tropical disturbance the other way due to easterly shear.

And if you’ll indulge me with one more football analogy, it seems like the star players are being held back by mediocre teammates. Robust tropical waves can’t seem to separate from the ITCZ far enough to show off their capability to grow and strengthen. In this case, weaker trade winds may be to blame.

Yes, the Atlantic hurricane season is as complicated as American football.

There are many rules, countless formations, dozens of plays, and innumerable ways in which players can interact with both teammates and the opposition. And as of this first week of September 2024, that’s led to a low-scoring quarter.

But I insist: this season is already extraordinary and, when it’s all said and done, will end up being remarkably active. It’s not even halftime and we’ve had two U.S. hurricane landfalls, including beastly Beryl, and more could come. The second half of September and October could be very busy.

If you’re in the eastern Caribbean, that means you should stay extra aware through Sept. 30 if not a little longer. If you’re in the Southeast U.S. including Florida, that means being at the ready deep into the 4th quarter, all the way past the end of October. You cannot become complacent.

The first area involved a tropical wave that was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola and portions of the central Caribbean Sea.

The NHC was giving the system a 30% chance of development over the next seven days as it was expected to move westward.

It could become a tropical depression as it reaches the western Caribbean and southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week or over the weekend, the NHC said.

A second area being monitored also had a 30% chance of formation over the next week.

That tropical wave was over the far eastern Atlantic and was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

The wave could become a tropical depression later this week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

A third tropical wave that was sandwiched between the other two was located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

That wave had a 10% chance of development in the coming days but more development was possible.

It could bring an increase in moisture to the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas by the middle of next week.

This looks to be similar to the many tropical waves we’ve had across the area already this season. The moisture usually hits the cold/stalled fronts that drape across the region and nudges rain chances up.

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.

One area under watch is a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, moving westbound with thunderstorm activity but lacking any organization.

In the short term, conditions are not readily favorable for development but may become more conducive late week.

With a medium chance for development, this could be something to watch late week as it nears the Yucatan peninsula.

Another area being monitored is a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands, also with a medium chance for development later in the week.

Early indications are that if any development occurs, it will be slow in nature.  

Additionally, a northerly turn out to sea would be highly likely, with no concerns of impact down the road. 

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season comes next week, Tuesday, Sept. 10.

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.

Turning the calendar to the month of September, as we did Sunday, we can find the hurricane archives littered with many of the deadliest and most destructive storms. Some of the costliest, too.

From the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane to the Labor Day hurricane of 1935. From Betsy of 1965 to Hurricane Rita of 2005. From Hurricanes Irma and Maria of 2017 to Hurricane Ian of 2022, the list goes on and on.

Thankfully, this Labor Day weekend that was not the case. In fact, it was the first Labor Day in five years without a named system in the tropical Atlantic.

In the face of seasonal forecasts that called for above-average activity, the last few weeks have proven dormant. Essentially, the opposite of what one would expect in a season poised to produced, especially given the time frame of late-August, early September.

As the peak of the season approaches one week from today, it’s difficult to say how things will resolve for the balance of the season. One can assume, as I am, that there will be activity that unfolds. However, it seems unlikely to hit the pace that would deliver the necessary numbers that match the pre-season predictions.

In the days ahead, two areas will be monitored in the Atlantic basin.

One area under watch is a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, moving westbound with thunderstorm activity, but lacking any organization. In the short term, conditions are not readily favorable for development, but may become more conducive later in the week.

With a medium chance for development, this could be something to watch closer to the weekend as it nears the Yucatan peninsula.

Another area being monitored is a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands, also with a medium chance for development late week.

Early indications are that if any development occurs, it will be slow in nature. Additionally, a northerly turn out to sea would be highly likely, with no concerns of impact down the road.

Whether or not the season ends up above or below average this year or any other year in the future, I’m indifferent. My singular hope is that you’re always keeping an eye out and are prepared in the event the deck is stacked against us. A season’s true measure isn’t in the final number of storms achieved…it’s simply if you were impacted or not.

Of course, September starts on Sunday. And Sept. 10 is the historical peak of hurricane season. By this time next week, we’re going to have potentially three areas of concern.

The factors that had brought us the late-August lull are disappearing. That includes the strong east winds aloft that had been causing odd wind shear, and the Saharan Air Layer that had stabilized the Atlantic where tropical waves were.

Despite a couple of long pauses, 2024’s season is still running 71% above normal based on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The metric, known by its acronym ACE, takes into account the number of storm days and their intensity. Any new named storms will simply add to an already extraordinary hurricane season.

The Atlantic disturbance most likely to develop over the next handful of days could impact the Caribbean, and possibly the southeastern U.S. down the road. Another could emerge from the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico. And a third could swing into the open Atlantic after passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands. 

Should development occur, it is too soon to tell where and when that disturbance heading into the Caribbean system will congeal. There is a wide region within which the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates that there is a medium chance for tropical depression or storm formation. It stretches from the Lesser Antilles to the central Caribbean Sea and as far north as Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

The system’s track will play a major role of what type of threat, if any, it could pose for the United States. If it tangles with the Greater Antilles, interaction with land and mountain ranges would keep the intensity in check. If it tracks over the open waters of the Caribbean, then it will have plenty of hot water to feed off from.

Recall that it was over the Caribbean Sea where Hurricane Beryl attained Category 5 status. Waters made a few degrees Celsius — yes, plural — hotter contributed to Beryl becoming the earliest ever-recorded Cat 5 in the Atlantic basin’s history. The observed hot sea surface temperatures were made hundreds of times more likely because of manmade climate change, according to Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index (CSI)—Ocean.

HURRICANE SEASON

Hurricane season Aug 26

The 2024 season is not dead – some reminders as we enter the heart of it: Ryan Phillips

Hurricane season Aug 22

John Morales explains conditions causing late-August lull in the tropics

As more of the global weather forecast models start to support the idea of tropical cyclone formation, we’ll see NHC raising the chances for development. Then, as soon as this weekend, Potential Tropical Cyclone Six may be on the map east of the Windward or Leeward Islands.

For those of us who never want to see a hurricane again, the hardest weeks of the year are ahead.

The tropical wave, which was just under 1,500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, now has a 40% chance of development over the next several days, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Thursday.

This feature is currently moving west at 10-15 mph and could develop into a depression as it nears the Lesser Antilles by early next week.

Long range global models tend to keep the system south of South Florida as it moves across the Caribbean Sea next week.

Model guidance tends to do a much better job at forecasting an accurate track if/when a system actually develops, so you have to take the long-range forecast with a grain of salt.

In the short term, those with interests in the throughout Caribbean should stay tuned.

Tropical activity tends to pick up in late August and early September as we near the peak of the season. The statistical peak is September 10th but keep in mind that September and October are busier than July and August.

Bottom line? We’ve got a long way to go.

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.

In fact, we haven’t been tracking a single thing in the Atlantic basin until Tuesday morning.

Here’s the latest scoop: An area of low pressure could form in the central Atlantic Ocean within the next few days with further development possible after that. The National Hurricane Center says the system has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next seven days.

The potential area of development could be hundreds if not over a thousand of miles away from land so we can’t with good conscience talk about potential impacts with any sort of confidence.

With that said, we will continue to watch this area closely.

Remember, we still have a way to go this hurricane season as the peak is roughly September 10^th.

Here’s an interesting fact: September and October are busier, statistically, than July and August. It’s always good to be prepared.

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.

Floridians intimately remember 2005 thanks to two storms that delivered substantial impacts to South Florida, Katrina from the east and Wilma from the west.

It was 15 years later that a hurricane season combined the right ingredients to produce more storms (30) with more Gulf Coast landfalls than 2005. This historic season unfolded amidst a background state of an ongoing global pandemic. Talk about navigating uncharted territory! 2020 was a season to not forget, even if impacts were minimal in South Florida.

In my reflection, it was seemingly easier to communicate weather information clearly, over one pathway, in 2005. Television, radio, print and media websites were the norm and remained the first, best way for weather information consumption.

Shuttle to 2020, when social media flexed its muscle as a powerful outreach tool. Then, conversely, marked its transformation to serve as a troublesome medium for effective hazard communication.

This isn’t a soliloquy lamenting legacy media vs. social media. But in 2005 it sure was easier to relay an important weather message, get to the point and not get lost in a sea of voices claiming “information.” 

The issue with this “new” media stems from posts that, at worst, hype and speculate with no scientific qualifier. At best, offering a half-hearted attempt to share a bullet point, but with missing elements. Through it all there is little to no accountability.

Professional meteorologists don’t want to spend time chasing down ill-informed or outright bad postings, but sometimes we’re left holding the fire extinguisher for the sake of clarity.

Enter the last few weeks where calls of a “busted season” have plastered the arenas that weather buffs frequent. Remember, it’s not always the loudest voices, but the persistent ones gathering engagement that draw the crowds.

In this final week of August, I know that Nostradamus is unavailable to help us out. And I’d really love to drop Walter Mercado a line for some assistance here. But as it stands, I’m left with a few sturdy reminders to share as we enter the heart of the season. Here they are:

• The background state of the atmosphere is still readily supportive of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. While sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content metrics aren’t everything, they’re critical. And they’re ready to produce. La Niña will eventually enter the chat, but even today’s “neutral” state holds potential.

• Atlantic basin climatology will come through. The six-month season is merely at the halfway point. You believe it’s over after five storms and August ends as quiet as the local library? Any week of any season with a break is welcome.

• Saharan Air has been a deterrent so far, yes. But at this juncture, it’s less likely to serve as a hindrance and should not be relied on to choke down development.

• Sure, everyone may be skewed by 2024’s seasonal forecasts for 17 to 23 storms…and, perhaps, this is what’s driving the sentiment of a “bust.” Three months in, five named storms down and an ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) value of 55 is not a sleeper season.

• We have short-term memories about how September to November can and do play out. As a refresher, allow me to remind you that 2017 produced seven hurricanes in the second half of the season, 2022 produced eight and 2020 produced 10.

Storms will form!

I implore you to turn to trusted voices in the weeks ahead.

I hope South Florida isn’t a part of 2024’s story. Either way, against a low tide of late August activity and the distant cries that the year is a bust…

There will be a season.

Hurricane season has entered another deep snooze since Ernesto hit the British Virgin Islands and skirted by Puerto Rico as a tropical storm last week, then made landfall in Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane last weekend.

We enjoyed similar “downtime” in July between Major Hurricane Beryl, which lost its tropical characteristics on July 9, and the naming of what became Hurricane Debby on Aug. 3.

A July lull in the tropics is par for the course. But one in late August is a bit surprising, especially given the expectations for an extremely active 2024 hurricane season.

There’s been no shortage of coverage — particularly in blogs and social media — of the reasons behind this downturn in tropical activity in the Atlantic. Tropical waves, which serve as seedlings for hurricanes, have been moving off of the coast of Africa farther north than usual. That path has taken them over colder waters that are not conducive to the development of storms.

That part of the Atlantic, north of Cabo Verde and south of the Canary Islands, is also prone to larger and denser clouds of Saharan dust. When the Saharan Air Layer is present, moisture levels in the lower atmosphere can be half of what you’d normally find above the ocean in tropical latitudes.

If colder water and dry air weren’t enough, there’s also been too much of a “good” thing.

Fledgling tropical storms don’t like westerly winds above them. It tilts them and prevents them from developing a strong nucleus. Now not only have westerly winds disappeared, but a strong easterly flow aloft has developed from Africa to the Caribbean! Weak winds from the east above a westward-moving tropical system favor its development. However, if they’re too strong, then wind shear can cause same storm tilt in the opposite direction, preventing hurricanes from forming.  

Alas, none of these hostile conditions for hurricanes are expected to last.

Observed trends and model guidance indicate that easterly waves will revert to their normal tracks, closer to Cabo Verde. Sea surface temperatures west of that archipelago are still quite warm, sometimes record-hot.

The strong easterlies aloft should also end as the calendar turns to September. And Saharan dust historically wanes towards the end of August. That means that come September, hurricane season’s peak month, there will be plenty over the Atlantic to keep us anxious.

By every measure, this hurricane season is off to a remarkably active start, including two U.S. hurricane landfalls. The most striking statistic is the number of “major hurricane days”, which is running 543% higher than normal! That’s all due to beastly Beryl and the astonishing records it set in June and early July.

If things become very active in September, as expected, we’ll only add to this season’s tally. Therefore, enjoy this lull while it lasts. Take advantage of the tax-free holiday for hurricane supply purchases in Florida, starting this Saturday Aug. 24 through Sept. 6.

Now think back to late May when NOAA released their seasonal forecast. Big numbers, big season, high expectations.

Today we’re settling into the third week of August with new school and work routines. Conveniently, here comes (post-Ernesto) a lull in tropical activity that looks to carry for several days. This break is not uncommon – but is also not always comforting. Why so?

August always reminds me of Andrew and Katrina… Charley, Harvey and Laura. But, if you want to dig deeper, history will thrust Alicia, Allen, Camille and Ida to the top of the list, too.

August can and does perform.

But if you’re wondering where the action is…allow me to remind you that we’re crossing the threshold into the most active time frame of the year, even though we’ve pushed 45% of the season behind us. 

The majority of storm development happens from late August through mid-October. This is typically the toughest 60-day stretch to navigate in a hurricane season.

What we’ve already experienced doesn’t necessarily dictate what’s ahead. So far in 2024, five named storms and three hurricanes have developed, with two United States landfalls. Isn’t that enough for a bad season? 

In 2022, when Ian and Nicole made Florida landfalls, three named storms had formed by this point with 11 more to follow for the balance of season.

However, before the core of the season showed its face, a 60-day stretch with no named storms settled dead in the heart of summer, early July through early September.

I’m sure folks wondered if we’d have a storm season then, just as some question today.

Back in 2020, 10 named storms had formed through mid-August. Impressive by that benchmark alone, the remainder of the season followed with 20 additional storms and 6 US landfalls. 

No two seasons are the same, nor should they be compared in a parallel manner.

At this point we remain at the crossroads of aggressive seasonal forecasts, warm sea surface temperatures, a slowly developing La Niña and a whole lot of unknowns. So, while the Saharan dust settles, keep trekking through the season as you always do.

Look not where we’ve been, remain focused on where we’re going.

Unusually warm ocean temperatures contributed to Hurricane Beryl’s rapid intensification. Climate Central’s new Climate Shift Index: Ocean (Ocean CSI) methodology, which quantifies the influence of climate change on sea surface temperatures, found that the storm developed and intensified over waters whose elevated temperatures were made up to 400 times more likely by human-caused climate change.

Hurricane Beryl rapidly intensified as it passed over waters that were 2°–3°F warmer than normal. The sea surface temperatures that fueled Hurricane Beryl are typically expected in September, not June. Human-caused climate change made these temperatures 100–400 times more likely.

“Beryl is a striking illustration that this year’s hurricanes are growing in an environment clearly warmed by human-caused climate change,” says Dr. Daniel Gilford, climate scientist at Climate Central.

Hurricane Beryl was a catastrophic North Atlantic storm during late June through early July 2024. Beryl’s development and rapid intensification were facilitated by record-breaking warm ocean conditions and a period of lower-than-average vertical wind shear. Beryl’s maximum winds peaked at approximately 165 mph just west of the Lesser Antilles, making it the earliest season Category 5 hurricane in recorded history. Beryl caused about $6 billion dollars in damages in the U.S. alone and killed at least 60 people during landfalls in the Caribbean, Yucatán Peninsula, and U.S. Gulf Coast.

As ocean temperatures warm in response to climate change, they provide unnatural extra fuel for tropical cyclones to intensify and increase the likelihood that storms will undergo rapid intensification — increasing maximum sustained winds by at least 30 knots (about 35 miles per hour) in a 24-hour period.

It is important to note that the Ocean CSI does not directly quantify how climate change affected Hurricane Beryl’s intensity; instead it speaks to the ocean conditions that allowed Beryl to become a historical and record-breaking storm.

The sea surface temperature over which Hurricane Beryl rapidly intensified was about 1.8°C (3.2°F) warmer than normal (based on the 1991-2020 average). The Ocean CSI indicates these temperatures were made 100–400 times more likely because of human-caused climate change.

This week’s Hurricane Ernesto has been moving over waters that, on average, have been 1.2°C (2.5°F) warmer than the 30-year average. Intensification was held back by dry air and its rapid speed of motion. But it reached hurricane strength north of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and is forecast to become a major hurricane with sustained winds of at least 115 mph before threatening Bermuda this weekend.

Remember, NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season updated outlook is forecasting four to seven of these often-catastrophic cyclones. Major Hurricane Beryl was the first this year and Ernesto could be the second.

Click here to use the Ocean CSI map tool.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Bermuda, with Ernesto expected to pass near or over the island on Saturday.

The Category 1 storm was located about 605 miles south-southwest of Bermuda on Thursday morning. It had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and was moving north at 13 mph.

HURRICANE SEASON

Hurricane season Aug 12

4 hurricanes hit Florida in 6 weeks? Here's what happened 20 years ago

Hurricane season Aug 8

John Morales on NOAA's updated seasonal outlook and the next potential tropical disturbance

“I cannot stress enough how important it is for every resident to use this time to prepare. We have seen in the past the devastating effects of complacency,” said National Security Minister Michael Weeks.

Ernesto was forecast to become a major Category 3 hurricane on Friday and then decrease in strength as it approaches Bermuda, where it is expected to drop between four to eight inches of rain, with up to 12 inches in isolated areas.

“All of the guidance show this system as a large hurricane near Bermuda,” said the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Meanwhile, the spinning storm on Thursday was generating southern winds in Puerto Rico, which have a heating effect as opposed to the typical cooling trade winds that blow from the east.

“We know a lot of people don’t have power,” said Ernesto Morales with the National Weather Service as he warned of extreme heat and urged people to stay hydrated.

More than 450,000 of 1.4 million customers remained in the dark more than a day after Ernesto swiped past Puerto Rico late Tuesday as a tropical storm before strengthening into a hurricane.

Hundreds of thousands also were without water as many questioned the widespread power outage given that Ernesto was only a tropical storm when it spun past the island.

“I haven’t slept at all,” said Ramón Mercedes Paredes, a 41-year-old construction worker who planned to sleep outdoors on Thursday night to beat the heat. “I haven’t even been able to take a shower.”

At a small park in the Santurce neighborhood of the San Juan capital, Alexander Reyna, a 32-year-old construction worker, sipped on a bright red sports drink that friends brought him as roosters crowed nearby above the slap of dominoes.

He had no water or power and planned to spend all day at the park as he lamented the lack of breeze, a slight film of sweat already forming on his forehead: “I have to come here because I cannot stand to be at home.”

The situation worried many who lived through Hurricane Maria, a powerful Category 4 storm that hit Puerto Rico in September 2017 and was blamed for at least 2,975 deaths in its sweltering aftermath. It also razed the island’s power grid, which is still being rebuilt.

The National Weather Service issued a heat advisory on Thursday warning of “dangerously hot and humid conditions.”

Faustino Peguero, 50, said he was concerned about his wife, who has fibromyalgia, heart failure and other health conditions and needs electricity. He has a small generator at home, but he is running out of gasoline and cannot afford to buy more because he hasn’t found work.

“It’s chaos,” he said.

Officials said they don’t know when power will be fully restored as concerns grow about the health of many in Puerto Rico who cannot afford generators or solar panels on the island of 3.2 million people with a more than 40% poverty rate.

Crews were still assessing the situation, although no catastrophic damage has been identified, said Juan Saca, president of Luma Energy, a private company that operates the transmission and distribution of power in Puerto Rico.

When pressed for an estimate of when power would be restored, Alejandro González, Luma’s operations director, declined to say.

“It would be irresponsible to provide an exact date,” he said.

At least 350,000 customers across Puerto Rico also were without water given the power outages. Among them was 65-year-old Gisela Pérez, who was starting to sweat as she cooked sweet plantains, pork, chicken and spaghetti at a street-side diner. After her shift, she planned to buy gallons of water, since she was especially concerned about her two small dogs: Mini and Lazy.

“They cannot go without it,” she said. “They come first.”

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.

Helene was forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly reach major hurricane status before an expected landfall in or near Florida’s Big Bend region.

The storm was located about 300 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, on Tuesday morning. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was moving west at 18 mph.

“It’s not a hurricane, but it will bring heavy rains regardless,” Gov. Pedro Pierluisi said as he urged people to seek shelter by early Tuesday evening.

He activated the National Guard as crews across the island visited flood-prone areas and elderly residents as part of last-minute preparations.

Forecasters have warned of widespread flooding and possible landslides, with six to eight inches of rain forecast for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and up to 10 inches in isolated areas. The looming rains come as Puerto Rico faces six reservoirs that already were overflowing ahead of the storm.

Tropical storm warnings were in place for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barts and St. Maarten.

The National Hurricane Center said Ernesto is forecast to move over or near Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday evening.

Officials in Puerto Rico warned of widespread power outages given the U.S. territory’s crumbling electric grid, which crews are still repairing after Hurricane Maria razed it in September 2017 as a Category 4 storm.

“That’s a reality,” said Juan Saca, president of Luma Energy, a private company that operates the transmission and distribution of power in Puerto Rico.

Outages also were a concern in the neighboring U.S. Virgin Islands for similar reasons, with blackouts reported on St. Thomas and St. John on Monday ahead of the storm.

“Don’t sleep on this,” said U.S. Virgin Islands Gov. Albert Bryan Jr., whose administration announced early Tuesday that it was closing all schools.

Early Tuesday, Ernesto drenched the French Caribbean island of Guadeloupe, where officials closed several main roads and urged people to stay indoors as they warned that the quality of potable water would be affected for several days.

Ernesto is the fifth named storm of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. It is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane early Thursday over open waters on a path toward Bermuda.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year because of record warm ocean temperatures. It forecasted 17 to 25 named storms, with four to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.

It was mid-August – Friday the 13th of all days – that Hurricane Charley blew through the Gulf of Mexico, bending “right” into Southwest Florida as a Category 4 hurricane.

Making landfall on Cayo Costa (followed by Punta Gorda) after rapidly intensifying, the storm was the first in a series of hurricanes to wallop the state that summer.

A small but mighty storm, Charley was a force of wind and focused surge along the Southwest Florida coastline. It went on to march northeast that night, unloading widespread damage across the peninsula, including the Orlando metro area.

It was a prompt to the state and the nation — the strongest hurricane since Andrew (1992) had just raked Florida, and there was more on the way.

Some 23 days later, Hurricane Frances stumbled ashore as a Category 2 on Sept. 5, taking a long trek north across the state and exiting into Georgia.

The landfall at Sewall’s Point came after the system stalled offshore, prolonging in the impacts of wind, rain and surge.

Soon after, on Sept. 16, Hurricane Ivan barreled through the Gulf of Mexico as a very large Category 4 hurricane, making landfall just west of Gulf Shores, Alabama as a Category 3. Previously a Category 5 when it sailed through the Caribbean, it walloped the Florida panhandle with destructive winds and 10 to 13 feet of storm surge.

While the eye made landfall in Alabama, the state collectively claimed the storm as its own as Escambia and Santa Rosa counties took the brunt of major hurricane winds and surge.

It’s also noteworthy to mention that the remnants of Ivan looped back over the Atlantic, passing through South Florida then back to the Gulf of Mexico a second time. The system ultimately made another landfall in Texas as a tropical depression on Sept. 24.

Talking about this system on television for over three weeks was a less-than-inspiring experience. Going through Charley was harrowing. The season had already proven to be exhausting. Three hurricanes in roughly a month had put Florida on the ropes. Sadly, one more hit was about to come, a mere nine days after Ivan.

Hurricane Jeanne became the sixth major hurricane of the relentless 2004 season, making landfall on the Florida’s Treasure Coast, Sept. 25.

Following suit with the unexpected twists of the summer, Jeanne’s landfall point was nearly coincident with Frances. This hindered recovery efforts from Frances and brought additional challenges to a power grid that was still recovering.

At the end of it all, Florida was battered and beat down with billions of dollars in damage and lives lost. It was nearly impossible to stand up because each time we tried, another hit came our way. When it was all said and done, all four names were retired from the World Meteorological Organization’s naming scheme and will never be used again.

This very brief recap of a horrific (summer) season that exhausted Floridians, on the coast and inland, serves two purposes.

One, if you lived it, this was a trip down memory lane. A reminder that you endured it and are likely better prepared because of it. Use this knowledge today and for every storm season ahead.

Yet, more importantly, it’s a reminder that hurricane season can be unforgiving. If you’re new to the area or haven’t been through a single storm, let alone multiple, it’s a wake-up call to the force of nature that no community wants to contend with.

Ernesto, the fifth named storm of the season, has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and was moving west at 28 mph and is located hundreds of miles east of the Lesser Antilles, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical storm warnings are still in effect from Guadeloupe north and west to Puerto Rico.

The National Hurricane Center said Ernesto is forecast to move over or near Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Forecasters warned the storm is expected to unleash floods and landslides.

“We cannot let our guard down,” Nino Correa, Puerto Rico’s emergency management commissioner, said at a news conference.

Puerto Rico Gov. Pedro Pierluisi said more than 340 shelters across the island would be available if necessary and that more than 200 personnel with the National Guard were activated.

Ernesto Morales, with the National Weather Service in San Juan, said between six to eight inches of rain are expected, with higher amounts in isolated areas. He also warned of hurricane-strength wind gusts as the storm is expected to hit northeast Puerto Rico and move across the U.S. territory late Tuesday and early Wednesday.

Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane early Thursday as it turns north toward Bermuda, with some forecasters warning it could strengthen into a major Category 3 storm.

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.

Tropical Storm Debby came and went and now a new tropical wave is on the move.

The National Hurricane Center has it at a 70% chance of developing in the next seven days. 

Currently, the wave is far away so we will have plenty of time to watch it.

By Tuesday, it will be entering a more conducive environment for developing; light wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.

By then, it will be approaching the Lesser Antilles possibly as a tropical depression.

Ernesto is the next name on the list, and this tropical wave could be the fifth named storm of the season.

As far as South Florida, there is no need to worry about this tropical wave for now.

Your best bet is to pay attention to the tropical forecast and make sure to check back with your First Alert Weather Team for tropical updates.

The August update to the May seasonal outlook still calls for a grand total of no less than 17 named storms (we’ve had four so far), possibly as many as 20 more during the remainder of the season. Of these, a total of eight to 13 would reach hurricane strength. There have been two hurricanes so far in 2024.

In the all-important major hurricane category, NOAA’s August outlook is forecasting four to seven of these often-catastrophic cyclones. Major Hurricane Beryl was the first this year. Will we see another half-dozen?

Mercifully, sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Main Development Region of the Atlantic are about 1 degree Fahrenheit lower, on average, than they were at the beginning of the season. However, that part of the ocean is still 1 degree Fahrenheit hotter than the 1981-2010 average.

Wind shear through the middle of this month is forecast to be low from a point midway between Africa and the Caribbean to near the Lesser Antilles — about half of the Main Development Region. Should a disturbance form, it will find sufficiently warm water and low wind shear to be able to grow.

That is precisely what seems to be happening as we head into this weekend. A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic is forecast by several of the global weather forecast models to develop into a tropical depression or storm over the next week. It appears to be aiming for the northeastern Caribbean, but it’s still unknown if it will develop before reaching that region.

The long-range track of the disturbance is still very uncertain. After passing over or near the Leeward Islands it could turn out to sea or continue moving towards the west-northwest, inching closer to the U.S. in about eight to 10 days.

Compared to what eventually became Hurricane Debby, there will be less hurdles for this disturbance to clear thanks to the aforementioned low wind shear and warm water. According to some computer models, dry air north and west of the system could mix into the fledgling circulation. But Saharan dust outbreaks historically drop off sharply in August.

Because the easterly wave is still southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, this is nothing to be overly concerned about yet. A lot can happen during its week-long trek across the Atlantic. But it is a reminder that the most active period of the hurricane season is upon us, and it’s forecast to be extraordinarily busy.

Around 110,000 people remained without power in the state as a result of Debby, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a news conference Tuesday morning.

Around 600,000 accounts have been restored and around 17,000 linemen were working to restore power to the rest, DeSantis said.

DeSantis called the power outages “significant” and said in Jefferson County, around 99% of the county was without power.

DeSantis spoke in the small community of Steinhatchee, where Debby made landfall as Category 1 hurricane. It’s not far from where Hurricane Idalia made landfall less than a year ago as a Category 3 storm.

Florida’s Department of Emergency Management has made nearly 1,000 storm-related missions and was expected to make at least 500 more as Debby caused significant flooding to some areas, DeSantis said Tuesday.

About 500 people were rescued from flooded homes in Sarasota, the Sarasota Police Department said Monday in a social media post.

“Essentially we’ve had twice the amount of the rain that was predicted for us to have,” Sarasota County Fire Chief David Rathbun said in a social media update.

Just north of Sarasota, officials in Manatee County said in a news release that 186 people were rescued from flood waters.

“We are facing an unprecedented weather event with Hurricane Debby,” said Jodie Fiske, Manatee County’s public safety director. “The safety of our residents is our top priority, and we are doing everything in our power to respond effectively to this crisis.”

Four people had died due to the storm in Florida as of Monday night, including a tractor trailer driver who lost control on Interstate 75 in the Tampa area, flipping over a concrete wall and dangling over the edge before the cab dropped into the water below. Sheriff’s office divers located the body of the 64-year-old man from Mississippi in the cab, 40 feet below the surface, according to the Florida Highway Patrol.

A 13-year-old boy died when a tree fell on a mobile home southwest of Gainesville, Florida, and in Dixie County, near where Debby made landfall, a 38-year-old woman and a 12-year-old boy died in a car crash on wet roads.

Stay with NBC6 for updates on this developing story.

Monday morning brought the second landfalling hurricane of the 2024 season as Debby rolled ashore with 80 mph winds. The storm made landfall as a Category 1 in Steinhatchee, Florida, just miles away from where Hurricane Idalia made landfall in September of 2023. 

While it’s significant that this marked just the third time since 1960 that two hurricanes made landfall in the United States by Aug. 5, that won’t be Debby’s legacy.

Instead, the slow-moving system, though much weaker, will end up cranking out rain totals that are sure to cause a substantial flood event from Georgia to North Carolina. My colleague Adam Berg wrote about this Monday afternoon on nbc6.com.

A storm’s forward speed isn’t critical when it’s drifting around in the open ocean, but the minute it’s near land…the potential impact level increases. Whether that’s rain, wind or storm surge, the more exposure an area has to a storm, the greater the resultant impact. That’s the scenario this week for Debby as it drifts near-aimlessly along the Southeast coast, generating rain totals that could reach up to 15-20” in isolated locations.

That’s why there is every reason to be concerned with this system, even though it lost some of the hype that an approaching hurricane generated.

Shifting south to the Caribbean, a tropical wave is moving westward with a 30% chance for development into the weekend. Its trajectory, development or not, will send it towards the Yucatan peninsula with no impact to South Florida’s forecast.

I’ll also note that, today, Colorado State will move towards their bi-weekly updates through the most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season. Considering the ebbs and flows that can occur throughout any season, CSU will highlight potential development areas and predictions through mid-October.

While South Florida has remained untouched so far this season, we’re still advancing toward the heart of it. What has unfolded in the first nine weeks of the season does not serve as a predictor for what the next nine weeks will deliver.

Your preparation plan and attention to tropical activity is the best roadmap to guide you through the November 30^th finish line.

Don’t forget about the NBC6 Hurricane Guide, available here for free.

Share it with your friends or new neighbors who haven’t prepared, or gone through, a Florida hurricane season. If you’re short on supplies or just want to shore up your kit, a bonus tax-free holiday is on the horizon. It starts Aug. 24 and runs through Sept. 6.

Harvey made landfall as a category 4 hurricane but for most of its lifetime over the Lone Star state it was a tropical storm.

How can we pick up so much rain from a tropical storm? It’s all about the forward speed of the system, not the intensity of the system.

A slow-moving tropical storm will almost always produce more rainfall than a fast-moving major hurricane…even a category 5 hurricane. The slower the forward speed the longer a particular area will see heavy rain.

In the case of Harvey, it downgraded to a tropical storm quickly but sat over the state for over four days! Multiple days of tropical rains will always spell trouble.

We are seeing something similar with Debby. Monday morning it became a tropical storm but it’s expected to drop much more rain from Georgia and points north than it did when it was over Florida as a hurricane.

I bet you can guess why?

Yes, its forward speed is expected to slow down dramatically. We will see widespread rainfall amounts of over a foot and some spots in the Carolinas may see 20″-30” of rain.

Debby will likely go down as a prolific rainmaker.

As of Sunday afternoon, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami were giving the area of unsettled weather in the Northwestern Caribbean a 40% chance for development in the next day or two, with an 80% chance for development by the middle of the week.

In this period, it is expected that a tropical depression or tropical storm will form.

As a result, tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued as soon as Monday for portions of Cuba and Mexico.

The next named system for the 2024 hurricane season will be “Helene.”

The timing of the system’s development, and the movement that positions the storm in the Gulf of Mexico, will have an important impact on how it tracks towards the United States late-week.

Residents from coastal Louisiana to the west coast of Florida are encouraged to monitor the forecast for the next several days. While it is too soon to pinpoint where the system will ultimately go, the Florida panhandle, through the Big Bend area, could be focal point for impact later in the week.

However, exactly where the system tracks will not be the only focus. The size and the intensity of a storm can present far-reaching impacts, away from the storm’s center. This could include locally heavy rainfall, isolated severe storms and a dangerous rip current risk for both sides of the Florida peninsula. 

For South Florida, our weather will be determined by the anticipated storm’s position and intensity. This could include breezy conditions, passing downpours, high surf and dangerous marine conditions.

Review your hurricane plan with the free NBC6 hurricane guide found here.

Throughout John Morales’ 30+ year career, he has forecast some of the most violent hurricanes. From his days working for the Puerto Rican government to guiding South Florida viewers on NBC 6, Morales has felt the impact of hurricanes on and off the TV screen.

The meteorologist says he will never forget the following hurricanes: David, Hugo, Andrew, Irma and Maria.

He explains why these storms are seared in his memory.

The storm made landfall around 7 a.m. as a Category 1 storm near Steinhatchee, a tiny community in northern Florida of less than 1,000 residents on Florida’s Gulf Coast.

The storm made landfall in one of the least populated areas of Florida, but forecasters warned heavy rain could spawn catastrophic flooding in Florida, South Carolina and Georgia.

Storm surge was expected to be the biggest threat for Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above ground level predicted in part of the zone near the Big Bend, according to John Cangialosi, a hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center.

“That part of the coast is a very vulnerable spot,” he said Monday.

Some areas, including Sarasota and Manatee counties, have already received 10 to 12 inches of rain.

“We expect to have several rivers and streams go into major flood stage,” said Kevin Guthrie, the state’s director of emergency management.

At a news conference Monday afternoon, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said at least four deaths have been linked to Debby.

Two people were killed in a crash in Dixie County while one person was killed in a crash in Hillsborough County, DeSantis said.

In Levy County, officials said a tree fell over onto a mobile home, crushing and killing a 13-year-old boy who was inside.

Around 250,000 customers were without power in Florida on Monday morning, while around 450,000 accounts had been restored, DeSantis said.

In Marion County, which is inland and south of Gainesville, sheriff’s officials noted in a Facebook post Monday that crews were responding to reports of downed power lines and trees that have fallen on roadways and homes.

DeSantis said some 17,000 linemen are working to restore electricity. He warned residents in affected areas to sit tight until conditions are safe.

“When the water rises, when you have streets that can be flooded, that’s hazardous,” DeSantis said. “Don’t try to drive through this. We don’t want to see traffic fatalities adding up. Don’t tempt fate, don’t try to go through these flooded streets.”

In Union County, some roads were already under water and numerous trees and powerlines were down. The Union County Sheriff’s Office said Monday that residents were cleaning up from a tornado that touched down in the county Sunday night, damaging at least one home. No injuries were reported.

Hurricane Debby has followed a track “very similar to Idalia 11 months ago,” DeSantis said. Idalia came ashore near Keaton Beach, Florida on Aug. 30, 2023, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. Keaton Beach is about 20 miles north of Steinhatchee. He noted there were fewer power outages with Debby.

Images posted on social media by Cedar Key Fire Rescue early Monday showed floodwaters rising along the streets of the city, located south of where the storm made landfall. Water was “coming in at a pretty heavy pace,” the post said.

In Live Oak, the roof of a warehouse was partially torn off, as pieces of metal from the structure were scattered on the street. Police were also blocking off several roads that had been flooded.

Crews from all over the state responded to help out, including Miami-Dade Fire Rescue, who sent around 50 personnel including rescue specialists, K-9 search teams, engineers and medical workers.

Officials in Venice posted photos of a roadway left damaged by the hurricane.

“Right now, we are to trying secure everything from floating away,” said Sheryl Horne, whose family owns the Shell Island Fish Camp along the Wakulla River in St. Marks, Florida, where some customers moved their boats inland.

The sparsely populated Big Bend region in the Florida Panhandle also was hit last year by Hurricane Idalia, which made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane.

“I am used to storms and I’m used to cleaning up after storms,” Horne said.

“We’re all hanging on here – a bunch of us stayed,” Dawn Perez said Monday by phone, as the eyewall of Hurricane Debby bore down on her home in the small town of Perry, Florida. Perez, the director of the town’s tourism department, said she has a new roof after Hurricane Idalia tore it apart in August 2023.

“The winds are intense – I’ve already lost my porch door and a tree, and stuff is blowing all over the place,” Perez said.

Debby is the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season after Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Chris, all of which formed in June.

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.

Helene was forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly reach major hurricane status before an expected landfall in or near Florida’s Big Bend region.

Helene was forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly reach major hurricane status before an expected landfall in or near Florida’s Big Bend region.

A hurricane warning was in effect for a portion of Florida’s Gulf coast Saturday as a tropical depression became Tropical Storm Debby as it made its way toward the state, forecasters said.

Tropical Storm Debby’s maximum sustained winds increased slightly to 40 mph as the system moved northwest about 100 miles west-southwest of Key West, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

• LIVE RADAR: Track Tropical Storm Debby’s path as the system nears Florida

Debby moved across western Cuba as a depression before it reached the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where it reached tropical storm status, the NHC said.

Forecasters said slow strengthening on Saturday would be followed by a faster rate of strengthening Sunday through Monday, and the system could be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf coast.

The latest potential track from the NHC kept the center of the system to the west of the Florida Keys.

A hurricane warning was in effect for the Florida Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River, while a hurricane watch was in effect for the Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass and the Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for the Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas and the west coast of the Florida peninsula from south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable.

A tropical storm watch was in effect for the Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge, and the Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

Heavy wind, rain and flooding were expected along the system’s path, with maximum rainfall totals up to 15 inches possible in some areas, the NHC said.

“This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding expected,” the NHC said.

Impacts in South Florida

Wind gusts to tropical storm force were occurring over the Florida Keys Saturday morning and other areas in South Florida throughout the day.

The windy conditions and scattered storms will be the highest impacts in South Florida with higher impacts further north.

The Lower Keys can expect wind to be around 30 mph with gusts 40 to 45 mph and choppy surf. Small craft advisories were in place for dangerous conditions on the water. The waves are expected to be 7 feet or higher. Surge in the Lower Keys and Dry Tortugas could be anywhere from 1-2 feet and mainland Monroe could see up to 3 feet.

HURRICANE SEASON

Hurricanes May 31

Hurricane Season 2024: NBC 6's Guide for South Florida Residents

Hurricane season Jul 9

Colorado State increases storm predictions, foresees ‘hyperactive' hurricane season

Impacts have already started across all of our area though. We’ve had scattered downpours and some breezy conditions from some of the outer squalls. This is to be expected throughout the day Saturday.

This could lead to some flooding concerns in areas that see round after round of rain. A flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida through Sunday evening. Rainfall totals look to be between 2-5 inches with some areas getting up to 8 inches for the weekend. Even higher totals are expected on the western side of Florida.

There is also the possibility that these squalls have a few rotating cells. Isolated tornadoes that are quick moving are also possible. While the threat is low, it’s not zero for these spin ups to occur.

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.

Tropical Depression Four was located about 170 miles south of Key West with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

8/2/24 11 PM: Tropical Depression Four has developed just to the south of Cuba. Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for coastal Collier County and mainland Monroe County, as the system is expected to strengthen as it approach the Florida Straits pic.twitter.com/amu1dkew39

— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) August 3, 2024

The tropical storm warning was issued for the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach.

The disturbance became Tropical Depression 4 late on Friday, just as it moved across the Straits of Florida near Cuba and could become a tropical storm by Sunday night, the NHC said.

If it does develop further, the system would be named Debby.

The system was moving over Cuba on Friday and a turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed was expected Friday night or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday.

HURRICANE SEASON

Hurricane season Aug 1

John Morales explains the potential impact of incoming tropical disturbance, why we've tracked it for days

Hurricanes May 31

Hurricane Season 2024: NBC 6's Guide for South Florida Residents

The system was expected to move near or over Florida’s west coast Saturday night through Sunday night.

Impact to Miami-Dade and Broward

Although portions of South Florida including Miami-Dade and Broward weren’t in the NHC’s initial potential track area, impacts from the system were still expected.

Regardless of development, look for breezy conditions and rain to pick up Friday night and into the weekend. Expect widespread wind gusts of 20-30 mph or more with some locations picking up multiple inches of rain.

The highest amounts of rain and gustiest winds will likely occur in the Keys but busy weather is expected across the region.

Conditions are forecast to improve late Sunday and into Monday morning as the system pulls away.

DeSantis Declares State of Emergency

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency for a number of counties in the state ahead of the system.

The order includes Monroe County but not Miami-Dade, Broward or Palm Beach.

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.

I exaggerate, of course. But the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began alerting us about a possible new tropical storm forming in the Atlantic seven days ago. And for so many in Florida and the Caribbean scarred by powerful hurricanes like Ian, Irma and Maria, that is a long time to be on edge.

NHC implemented a new longer-range Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) this year. It is, in my (maybe unpopular) opinion, counterproductive. Depending on the circumstances, a long-range (more than 5-day) weather forecast for the notoriously unpredictable tropical latitudes can border on speculation, especially when tropical waves are facing significant obstacles for development and have limited support from weather forecast models calling for storm formation.

I understand that a 7-day TWO is designed for improved awareness which should lead, in theory, to greater preparedness. But it also opens the door to stress and speculation, and the inevitable hype, clickbait, and downright misinformation that must be countered.

Those doing the countering of hype and speculation aren’t just my responsible colleagues and me in traditional communication roles. Even local National Weather Service offices have been compelled to send unscheduled messages to the public clarifying that little is known about what, if anything, could happen with the tropical disturbance. The government meteorologists had to explain that any rain and flooding in the forecast was unrelated to the disturbance — even when the disturbance was still 2,000 miles away!

It was Friday, July 26, when we first heard of this system. NHC called for a slight chance for it to become a tropical depression or storm somewhere between the open Atlantic and the eastern and central Caribbean. But the easterly wave, while large, was embedded in a dry air mass heavily sprinkled with Saharan dust.

The dry air kept the disturbance from strengthening, and for days satellite pictures were devoid of cloudiness near its core. It did finally become more active when reaching the Antilles. But the system now has to deal with land interaction over the islands, and occasional bouts of wind shear.

So, the storm has yet to materialize. For that we’re grateful. It remains a tropical wave today as it moves across the Greater Antilles, namely eastern Cuba, likely on its way to the Gulf of Mexico. It could still impact Florida, at minimum with rain, but still possibly as a tropical storm should it finally gain strength in the Gulf.

Possible impacts upon South Florida range from an enhanced chance for heavy downpours this weekend and early next week, to a tropical depression or weak tropical storm crossing over the Florida Keys and southern peninsula. But not a hurricane.

And then we’ll turn our sight back out to the Atlantic for the busiest stretch of the season — August, September and October. The NBC6 First Alert Weather team will be with you every step of the way.

Many questions still remain about the weak tropical wave crossing Puerto Rico and how it could affect South Florida this weekend. But here’s what we do know.

The National Hurricane Center on Friday gave the wave a 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next seven days as it approaches the waters around Florida.

On Wednesday, models were still not in complete agreement (which meant our confidence remained on the lower side). But since there has been some movement of the models beginning to show early signs of consensus.

The biggest difference is that both the GFS and EURO models have showed more of the western solution versus the eastern solution as of Wednesday evening.

The eastern solution, which the EURO favored all week, had the system moving up the east coast of Florida, but remaining offshore before intensifying on its way toward Cape Hatteras. This would actually be a lower-impact scenario for our region because it keeps the center of the storm and the storm’s active right side offshore, leaving South Florida with a little rain and wind at most.

The western solution is more impactful simply because it opens up the southerly winds and the tropical moisture, enhancing rain chances. While our region still wouldn’t see any immediate storm development with either the EURO or GFS models, we would see is tropical moisture surging toward the Gulf Of Mexico. The system might have a chance to get stronger in the Gulf or move back across the Peninsula and develop off of Florida’s east coast next week before moving north.

HURRICANE SEASON

Hurricane season Jul 9

Colorado State increases storm predictions, foresees ‘hyperactive' hurricane season

Hurricanes May 31

Hurricane Season 2024: NBC 6's Guide for South Florida Residents

But, regardless of how the system develops, it looks like the biggest impact for South Florida will be enhanced rain. Sunday looks like the bull’s eye, but the highest rain chances will be toward Key West. In the coming days, we’ll see if the moisture arrives as early as Saturday, or if it is more of a Sunday-Monday rain event.

There is one last scenario: the system could track so far south of South Florida into the Gulf that we see slightly higher rain chances but nothing more than that.

So, we still have more details to work out, but enhanced rain on Sunday, possibly as early as Saturday and especially in The Keys is the early call for the weekend.

Meanwhile, Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency for several counties in the state, including Monroe, Collier, Orange, Pinellas, Polk and many more. Miami-Dade and Broward were not included in the list.

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.

Helene was forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly reach major hurricane status before an expected landfall in or near Florida’s Big Bend region.

A few weeks have passed since the last named system dissolved, providing a nice break to the 2024 hurricane season. Over the last several weeks, several rounds of Saharan air spread across the Atlantic basin, guiding the pause. All the while, above-average sea surface temperatures have persisted, if not expanded. 

That puts the season in an explosive standby position. Although the lid remains on tight, the water continues to boil.

The last few days have placed focus on the open tropical Atlantic, where a wave and an area of disturbed weather may co-mingle in the days ahead. While the National Hurricane Center continues to identify a “medium” chance for development near the Bahamas or Greater Antilles over the next several days, the waiting game will continue.

That is, waiting to see whether a system develops and, if so, if it may pose any threat to Florida or the United States.

At the root of the elongated messaging is the inability for global forecast models to come into any semblance of agreement. It inherently leads to a low confidence situation, such as this.

While it’s not often that we find graceful handshakes between the models so far out, their forecasts for this situation haven’t even put solutions in the same room, let alone the same area code.

With such a wide range of outcomes ranging from nothing to a tropical depression forming…from positions in the Gulf to the Southeast coastline … it’s difficult to pin anything down today or impart confidence.

It’s likely to be a day or two more before any tangible results might bend the conversation one way or the other.  While we watch carefully via satellite and process the 4-times-daily model runs, we’ll await any information we can garner from the scheduled reconnaissance flights to the area (should they go).

It’s a long exercise sometimes, especially in an on-demand world.

But patience is a virtue where information is empowering.

While I’m not overly concerned about this situation for South Florida, it certainly reminds us that an important turn of the calendar is ahead.

August begins Thursday and the heart of the season is just upon us. It is important to check in at least once a day to see what’s happening in the tropics, even when there’s nothing to be concerned with. Knowledge is power. Having the power to react appropriately, especially when it’s proactively, is in your hands each season.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic. 

Currently, the wave has a medium chance (50%) of developing into a depression or storm in the next seven days. 

Debby is the next name on the list.

Here is what we know:

The tropical wave will be steered west-northwest by the Bermuda High, a semi-permanent subtropical high located in the Northern Atlantic off the East Coast of the United States. It gets its name because it typically sits near the island of Bermuda.

The strength of the dome of sinking air will determine where the wave will go.

A clearer picture of what will happen will come into focus once all of the ingredients are at play. By Wednesday, we’ll have a better idea of what awaits this weekend.

Scenario 1:  A stronger Bermuda High will steer the tropical wave towards Florida or the Gulf of Mexico, leading to a rainy weekend across South Florida.

Scenario 2: A weaker Bermuda High will steer the system to ride along its periphery in a clockwise direction, turning the system off the coast of the U.S., leading to little rain to our local forecast.

What is currently at question is: will the wave intensify into a depression or storm? Will it curve north-east or steer west-northwest in the next few days?

The strength of the Bermuda High will determine the ultimate track. For now please stay up to date on the latest tropical developments.

We are currently monitoring a tropical wave an elongated area of low pressure in the central Atlantic as it pushes west.

In the next couple of days we aren’t expecting any development.

There is plenty of dry, dusty air over the wave and this is a major limiting factor for tropical development, but things could change as this plume of dust is expected to dissipate by the middle and later part of the week.

Adding to the equation is the fact that water temperatures are above average across nearly the entire Atlantic basin.

As it stands right now, the National Hurricane Center gives this system a 0% chance of development over the next 48 hours but a 50% chance over the next seven days.

There are indications that a depression could form as early as mid-late week anywhere from the northern Leeward Islands to the southeastern Bahamas.

We realize this is a large window of time and wide geographic area.

Meteorologists are much more confident when the computer models we trust and use show consensus and we just aren’t seeing that right now.

Given the fact that this system isn’t producing abundant thunderstorms right now and the fact that it is still in the middle of the Atlantic, we just wait and watch for now.

This certainly bears watching as we are in the development zone.

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.