The forecast currently has Helene getting up to a Category 3 hurricane as it approaches landfall by Thursday in the Big Bend of Florida.

“[The National Hurricane Center] has never in their history forecasted a major at this stage of development,” DeSantis said at a news conference in Tallahasee. “I think the fact that this would be forecasted as a major at this point, without formation, shows that this has a potential to be a really, really significant storm.”

Tracking the Tropics 14 hours ago

Tropical Storm Helene could become a major hurricane as it approaches Florida

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Florida residents evacuating as Tropical Storm Helene is expected to become a hurricane

DeSantis previously announced he was issuing a state of emergency for 41 counties ahead of the storm. Miami-Dade and Broward weren’t part of the declaration, but it did include Monroe County.

“The Big Bend and Panhandle should be especially prepared for a direct impact,” DeSantis said.

The area is still recovering from Hurricane Debby, which struck as a Category 1 in August, and Hurricane Idalia, which hit as a Category 4 in 2023.

“It is possible that we have an Idalia, Debby track… and this potentially could be even more powerful than Idalia, we’ll see. But it’s going to potentially impact areas that are in the process of rebuilding, not just in the Big Bend, but Panama City still,” DeSantis said.

The governor said he had activated the Florida State Guard, and 3,000 Florida National Guard soldiers were standing by, ready to assist.

DeSantis said impacts were anticipated “100, 200 miles outside of the eye of the storm, you could see with winds and you could see with surge. So if you’re in the Tampa Bay area, you anticipate that you’re going to see impacts. We could also see impacts in southwest Florida, just depending on what the track is.”

Outer rain bands from the system could start to move through the overnight hours on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Surge in the Florida Keys could be 1-3 feet as the system passes.

The governor said though there is some uncertainty about the storm’s track, Floridians have time to prepare for power outages, flooding and evacuations. Residents should ensure they have enough essentials, including food and water, for seven days.

Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie also encouraged people to heed evacuation warnings if they are implemented.

“People do not need to even leave their county in most instances,” DeSantis added. “It’s just getting away from when that water comes… The wind you can hide from. Anything that’s shelter in Florida is going to be able to withstand the wind, but it’s the water that can be really, really devastating.”

This is a developing story. Refresh for updates.

Helene had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was about 115 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Once it moves closer to the Yucatan channel, it’ll have the opportunity to strengthen into a hurricane and then a major hurricane, the NHC said.

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The forecast currently has Helene getting up to a major Category 3 hurricane as it approaches landfall by Thursday afternoon and evening in the Big Bend of Florida.

A hurricane warning was issued for the Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida, while a hurricane watch was in effect for Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

A tropical storm warning was issued for portions of Florida including the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge, while a tropical storm watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee and the Palm Beach/Martin County line northward to the Savannah River.

Storm surge watches stretched along the state’s Gulf coast from the Big Bend all the way to the Florida Keys.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded a state of emergency to 61 counties ahead of the storm, as some residents began to evacuate on Tuesday.

Tropical storm force wind is expected to extend well away from the center of the storm. South Florida's wind begins picking up tonight and into Wednesday morning. TS force conditions in the Lower Keys could last into Thursday! @nbc6 pic.twitter.com/Qzm5lWpGVy

— Chelsea Ambriz (@ChelseaAmbrizTV) September 24, 2024

Major impacts

Heavy rainfall will come with this system, increasing the flooding threat. The flooding rain looks to track well inland and into the midsouth into the weekend.

Due to how large this system is forecast to be, storm surge, wind and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, especially on the east side of the system.

Hurricane watches are place through the Big Bend of Florida while tropical storm watches extend down into the Lower Keys.

This system is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane before making a landfall on Thursday! @nbc6 pic.twitter.com/tqsImqd1iW

— Chelsea Ambriz (@ChelseaAmbrizTV) September 24, 2024

Timeline

Wind will begin to pick up Tuesday afternoon and evening across the South Florida area.

Outer rain bands from this system could start to move through the overnight hours on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Surge in the Florida Keys could be 1-3 feet as the system passes.

For South Florida, wind will be the main thing we feel across Broward and Miami-Dade counties. Gusty conditions take over Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Wind could be sustained 20-25 mph and gust 35-40+ mph. 

Scattered tropical downpours are expected starting overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

The scattered outer bands will last off and on into Thursday and lingering showers into Friday. Isolated and quick tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Rain totals should be 2-4 inches with localized areas seeing up to 6 inches.

In the Keys, winds are already starting to pick up and will continue to do so through Thursday. Sustained wind of 20-30 mph is expected with gusts of 50+ mph.

Rainfall totals will range from 4-6 inches, especially as we go into Wednesday, and this system is west of the island chain.

Rain looks to linger into the weekend. Storm surge will also be possible, with heights of 1-3 feet.

The designation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight allowed for the National Hurricane Center to issue the warning, in advance of the system’s likely maturity to Helene.

Helene would be the eighth named system of the 2024 season.

The Carolina coastline will be in for 3 to 6 inches of rainfall and a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet through Monday night.

As the system presses inland, rains will follow through western North Carolina and into the southern Appalachian Mountains as the system weakens.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Gordon will meander in the open tropical Atlantic for much of the week before lifting north.

While the system may re-strengthen into a tropical storm again, it poses no threat to land.

Otherwise, there are no areas of concern in the Atlantic basin for the next few days.

Though not quite organized enough to be deemed a tropical depression, the system is forecast to eventually evolve into a named storm.

The system is forecast to strengthen and could become Tropical Storm Ernesto as early as Tuesday — the fifth of the 2024 Atlantic season.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five in the central Atlantic is roughly 435 miles to east-southeast of Antigua and 730 miles east of San Juan.

Tropical storm warnings are now in effect from Guadeloupe north and west to Puerto Rico.

The system has sustained winds at 35 mph and it is moving west very quickly at 26 mph.

The track and intensity forecast takes our cyclone over the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday and then potentially the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday.

The main impacts for this region will be tropical storm winds, 1-3 feet of surge and heavy rainfall — 10” or more of rainfall is possible, especially for Puerto Rico.

PTC5 is expected to turn sharply to the north by the middle of the week, continue to intensify.

Bermuda is currently in the crosshairs and will need to pay attention. Hurricane hunters are currently investigating the system.

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Many questions still remain about the weak tropical wave crossing Puerto Rico and how it could affect South Florida this weekend. But here’s what we do know.

The National Hurricane Center on Friday gave the wave a 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next seven days as it approaches the waters around Florida.

On Wednesday, models were still not in complete agreement (which meant our confidence remained on the lower side). But since there has been some movement of the models beginning to show early signs of consensus.

The biggest difference is that both the GFS and EURO models have showed more of the western solution versus the eastern solution as of Wednesday evening.

The eastern solution, which the EURO favored all week, had the system moving up the east coast of Florida, but remaining offshore before intensifying on its way toward Cape Hatteras. This would actually be a lower-impact scenario for our region because it keeps the center of the storm and the storm’s active right side offshore, leaving South Florida with a little rain and wind at most.

The western solution is more impactful simply because it opens up the southerly winds and the tropical moisture, enhancing rain chances. While our region still wouldn’t see any immediate storm development with either the EURO or GFS models, we would see is tropical moisture surging toward the Gulf Of Mexico. The system might have a chance to get stronger in the Gulf or move back across the Peninsula and develop off of Florida’s east coast next week before moving north.

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But, regardless of how the system develops, it looks like the biggest impact for South Florida will be enhanced rain. Sunday looks like the bull’s eye, but the highest rain chances will be toward Key West. In the coming days, we’ll see if the moisture arrives as early as Saturday, or if it is more of a Sunday-Monday rain event.

There is one last scenario: the system could track so far south of South Florida into the Gulf that we see slightly higher rain chances but nothing more than that.

So, we still have more details to work out, but enhanced rain on Sunday, possibly as early as Saturday and especially in The Keys is the early call for the weekend.

Meanwhile, Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency for several counties in the state, including Monroe, Collier, Orange, Pinellas, Polk and many more. Miami-Dade and Broward were not included in the list.

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Some 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, an area of disturbed weather is meandering across the tropical Atlantic.  Surrounded by dry air, it is essentially an island of potential in a sea of deterrent.

The entire suite of global forecast models has proven to show mixed reaction to development possibilities.

While some point to development through the week, others steer away from it.

Continuing, some of the same models continue to advance the potential maturation of a system, while subsequently killing it off in additional model runs.

Given the lack of consistency in timing, placement and organization, this is an exceptionally low confidence area to watch.

The National Hurricane Center has placed this area in their Tropical Weather Outlook and currently allows for a 40 percent chance for development over the next seven days.

Because the Florida peninsula remains geographically relevant by next weekend, it’s in our best interest to remain vigilant.

The next storm name for the 2024 season is “Debby.”

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Now, our first wave since Beryl is being monitored in the tropics.

There are two waves in the open Atlantic waters even with Saharan dust to the north. The leading one is now being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

In the immediate 2-day forecast, the chance of development in 0% and in the longer range forecast, the chance of development is 40%.

Even though it might not take on a lowering pressure center right away, tropical moisture is headed for the Lesser Antilles. Meaning, rain and storms are expected through the arc of islands from the Leeward islands to Puerto Rico and west.

The NHC has stated that the environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for some development in a day or two, and a tropical depression could form around midweek while the system is near or over the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, or southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

The environment that this wave is moving into has the warm sea surface waters to help this fuel the storm. It will be working against the Saharan dust to the north and a few pockets of wind shear.

So confidence is still very low at where the system comes together.

What can South Florida expect?

One model has it strengthening and riding the eastern coast another has both waves merging but it staying relatively weak and moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Two very different scenarios with South Florida being the fork in the road.

South Florida will have to watch for increased moisture into next weekend but that is all dependent on what this ends up doing with lots of time for it to still change.

We’ve seen waves come through already this year and ramp up or rain chances so something to keep in mind.

As we saw with Beryl, the storms can maneuver and track around the threatening factors and still hold structure if it strengthens enough.

Debby is the next name on the list.

We have been monitoring a disturbance, and a secondary disturbance behind it in the open Atlantic, both drifting toward the Lesser Antilles.

The National Hurricane Center is now giving this disturbance a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next seven days.

At this point, this is a low-confidence forecast with regards to both development/strength and potential track. Our models are wildly divergent.

One of our more-reliable models keep this system as an open wave that moves toward the Gulf Of Mexico.

If this were to happen, South Florida might just see enhances moisture at most. Another of our more-reliable models shows a stronger, more-developed system heading toward the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida and then strengthening even more toward Cape Hatteras.

Because we have so much variability in potential strength, and because the system could literally miss south or miss east or anywhere in between, it shows that it is simply too early to know what will happen.

But South Florida will need to keep a close eye on how the system evolves in the coming days. Whatever this system does become, it would not approach the Mainland United States until next weekend.

Hurricane Beryl is “expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to the Windward Islands as a major hurricane,” NWS said.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the island of Barbados.

Forecasters warned Beryl was expected to strengthen into a dangerous major hurricane before reaching Barbados late Sunday.

A major hurricane is considered a Category 3 or higher, with winds of at least 111 mph (178 kph).

“It’s astonishing to see a forecast for a major (Category 3+) hurricane in June anywhere in the Atlantic, let alone this far east in the deep tropics. #Beryl organizing in a hurry over the warmest waters ever recorded for late June,” Florida-based hurricane expert Michael Lowry posted on X.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts the 2024 hurricane season is likely to be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast calls for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Beryl is expected to drop up to six inches (15 centimeters) of rain in Barbados and nearby islands, and a high surf warning of waves up to 13 feet (4 meters) was in effect. A storm surge of up to seven feet (2 meters) is also forecast.

The storm is approaching the southeast Caribbean just days after the twin-island nation of Trinidad and Tobago reported major flooding in the capital, Port-of-Spain, as a result of an unrelated weather event.

Meanwhile, a no-name storm earlier this June dumped more than 20 inches (50 centimeters) of rain on parts of South Florida, stranding numerous motorists on flooded streets and pushing water into some homes in low-lying areas.

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A major hurricane is considered Category 3 or higher, with winds of at least 111 mph (178 kph). At midafternoon Saturday, Beryl was a Category 1 hurricane, marking the farthest east that a hurricane formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, breaking a record set in 1933, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

A hurricane warning was issued for Barbados, and a hurricane watch was in effect for St. Lucia, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A tropical storm watch was issued for Martinique, Dominica and Tobago.

“It’s astonishing to see a forecast for a major (Category 3+) hurricane in June anywhere in the Atlantic, let alone this far east in the deep tropics. #Beryl organizing in a hurry over the warmest waters ever recorded for late June,” Florida-based hurricane expert Michael Lowry posted on X.

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Beryl’s center was forecast to pass about 26 miles (45 kilometers) south of Barbados, said Sabu Best, director of the island’s meteorological service. Forecasters then expected the storm to cross the Caribbean on a path toward Jamaica and eventually Mexico.

Late Saturday afternoon, Beryl was centered about 720 miles (1,160 kilometers) east-southeast of Barbados, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph). It was moving west at 22 mph (35 kph).

“Rapid strengthening is now forecast,” the Miami-based U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Atmospheric science researcher Tomer Burg noted that Beryl was just a tropical depression with 35 mph winds Friday.

“This means that according to preliminary data, Beryl already met rapid intensification criteria before even becoming a hurricane,” he wrote on the social media platform X.

Warm waters were fueling Beryl, with ocean heat content in the deep Atlantic the highest on record for this time of year, according to Brian McNoldy, University of Miami tropical meteorology researcher.

Beryl also is the strongest June tropical storm on record that far east in the tropical Atlantic, according to Klotzbach.

“We need to be ready,” Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley said in a public address late Friday. “You and I know when these things happen, it is better to plan for the worst and pray for the best.”

She noted that thousands of people are in Barbados for the Twenty20 World Cup cricket final, with India beating South Africa on Saturday in the capital of Bridgetown. It is considered cricket’s biggest event.

Some fans, like Shashank Musku, a 33-year-old physician who lives in Pittsburgh, were rushing to change their flights to leave before the storm.

Musku said by phone that he has never experienced a hurricane: “I don’t plan on being in one, either.”

He and his wife, who were rooting for India, found out about Beryl thanks to a taxi driver who mentioned the storm.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves said in a public address Saturday that shelters would open Sunday evening and he urged people to prepare. He ordered officials to refuel government vehicles and asked grocery stores and gas stations to stay open later before the storm.

“There will be such a rush … if you keep limited hours,” he said as he apologized ahead of time for government interruptions on radio stations with storm updates. “Cricket lovers have to bear with us that we’ll have to give information … this is life and death.”

Beryl is the second named storm in what is predicted to be a busy hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 in the Atlantic. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto came ashore in northeastern Mexico with heavy rains that resulted in four deaths.

Lowry noted that in records dating back to 1851 only five named storms had ever formed in June in the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean, and only one of those was a hurricane. He said that one was the first hurricane of 1933, which was the most active hurricane season on record.

Mark Spence, manager of a hostel in Barbados, said by phone that he was calm about the approaching storm.

“It’s the season. You can get a storm any time,” he said. “I’m always prepared. I always have enough food in my house.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts the 2024 hurricane season is likely to be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast calls for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Beryl was expected to drop up to six inches (15 centimeters) of rain in Barbados and nearby islands, and a high surf warning of waves up to 13 feet (4 meters) was in effect. A storm surge of up to seven feet (2 meters) was also forecast.

The storm is approaching the southeastern Caribbean just days after the twin-island nation of Trinidad and Tobago had major flooding in the capital, Port-of-Spain, as a result of an unrelated weather event.

Caribbean leaders are not only worried about Beryl, but also about a cluster of thunderstorms closely following Beryl’s path that had a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression by the middle of next week.

Meanwhile, a no-name storm earlier this June dumped more than 20 inches (50 centimeters) of rain on parts of South Florida, stranding numerous motorists on flooded streets and pushing water into some homes in low-lying areas.

The system, with winds of 40 mph, is located hundreds of miles southeast of La Pesca, Mexico, and Brownsville, Texas, and is expected to bring heavy rainfall to parts of the western Gulf Coast, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

If Potential Tropical Cyclone One develops, it is expected to be named “Alberto.” A tropical storm watch was issued for parts of the Texas coast and northeastern Mexico for the system.

Regardless of its development, heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico and Central America and is likely to cause life-threatening and flash flooding.

The NHC is also watching another tropical wave located east of the Bahamas. It currently has a low chance of development over the next two days.

Neither system will pose a direct threat to South Florida.

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There is the potential for some deep tropical moisture to work in from the Bahamas by the middle and later part of the week, but confidence is on the low side as model guidance is struggling to put together a consistent message.

The NHC is also looking at this same general area (technically a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas) as a low “could” develop several days from now as it moves westward.

Weather officials said the system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United States on Thursday or Friday. It has a 30% chance of forming over the next seven days.

Early indications seem to show this potential low missing us to the north but obviously we will watch it closely.  

The NHC is also watching an area in the far western Gulf of Mexico.

This area has a high chance of development, but no impact to South Florida whatsoever.

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Sean was located about 725 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The storm is forecast to move west-northwestward or northwestward over the next few days with little change in strength.

Meanwhile, a tropical wave is being tracked just offshore of west Africa that is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

The NHC said the system has a 20% chance of development over the next seven days as it could gradually strengthen while it moves westward across the Atlantic.

Sean is the 19th named storm in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

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Helene had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was about 115 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Once it moves closer to the Yucatan channel, it’ll have the opportunity to strengthen into a hurricane and then a major hurricane, the NHC said.

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The forecast currently has Helene getting up to a major Category 3 hurricane as it approaches landfall by Thursday afternoon and evening in the Big Bend of Florida.

A hurricane warning was issued for the Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida, while a hurricane watch was in effect for Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

A tropical storm warning was issued for portions of Florida including the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge, while a tropical storm watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee and the Palm Beach/Martin County line northward to the Savannah River.

Storm surge watches stretched along the state’s Gulf coast from the Big Bend all the way to the Florida Keys.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded a state of emergency to 61 counties ahead of the storm, as some residents began to evacuate on Tuesday.

Tropical storm force wind is expected to extend well away from the center of the storm. South Florida's wind begins picking up tonight and into Wednesday morning. TS force conditions in the Lower Keys could last into Thursday! @nbc6 pic.twitter.com/Qzm5lWpGVy

— Chelsea Ambriz (@ChelseaAmbrizTV) September 24, 2024

Major impacts

Heavy rainfall will come with this system, increasing the flooding threat. The flooding rain looks to track well inland and into the midsouth into the weekend.

Due to how large this system is forecast to be, storm surge, wind and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, especially on the east side of the system.

Hurricane watches are place through the Big Bend of Florida while tropical storm watches extend down into the Lower Keys.

This system is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane before making a landfall on Thursday! @nbc6 pic.twitter.com/tqsImqd1iW

— Chelsea Ambriz (@ChelseaAmbrizTV) September 24, 2024

Timeline

Wind will begin to pick up Tuesday afternoon and evening across the South Florida area.

Outer rain bands from this system could start to move through the overnight hours on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Surge in the Florida Keys could be 1-3 feet as the system passes.

For South Florida, wind will be the main thing we feel across Broward and Miami-Dade counties. Gusty conditions take over Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Wind could be sustained 20-25 mph and gust 35-40+ mph. 

Scattered tropical downpours are expected starting overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

The scattered outer bands will last off and on into Thursday and lingering showers into Friday. Isolated and quick tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Rain totals should be 2-4 inches with localized areas seeing up to 6 inches.

In the Keys, winds are already starting to pick up and will continue to do so through Thursday. Sustained wind of 20-30 mph is expected with gusts of 50+ mph.

Rainfall totals will range from 4-6 inches, especially as we go into Wednesday, and this system is west of the island chain.

Rain looks to linger into the weekend. Storm surge will also be possible, with heights of 1-3 feet.

The system will linger in the same vicinity until Monday when it will begin its trek through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

As of Sunday afternoon, it was moving northeast at 3 mph.

As of Sunday night, Idalia was fairly stationary with winds of 60 mph.

Idalia is expected to develop into a hurricane by Monday afternoon, with landfall sometime early Wednesday morning as a category 2 hurricane.

The intensity and track forecast is likely to be adjusted in the coming days.

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect in the northwest Caribbean through Sunday afternoon.

There are new hurricane watches and tropical storm watches from the Panhandle down to west Central Florida.

Devastating storm surge can be expected on the west coast.

This may change by early Monday morning.

Gulf coast residents should continue to review their hurricane preparation plan for impacts such as damaging winds, inland flooding, storm surge and tornadoes.

At a Sunday afternoon news conference, Governor Ron Desantis emphasized the uncertainty that still surrounds Idalia.

“This thing hasn’t even gotten to Cuba yet, and the water in the Gulf is very, very warm and so that will provide some fuel for this thing to pick up some more speed,” DeSantis said. “As we know, these things can wobble, so Floridians along our Gulf Coast should be vigilant even if you’re currently outside the cone.”

In South Florida, the forecast in the days ahead will feature a breezy pattern with passing downpours, with the ultimate track and intensity dictating the forecast locally. 

As for the Florida Keys — on Sunday night, the Tropical Storm Watch for the Dry Tortugas was updated to a Tropical Storm Warning.

Meanwhile, a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Lower Florida Keys, west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge.

A slightly closer approach will increase the breeze and expected wet weather, while a system tracking west will dampen the resultant weather for the area.

 With any passing downpours, wind gusts may peak at 40-45 mph Monday evening through Wednesday night.

Considering the current forecast, the NBC6 viewing area is not expected to experience adverse weather as a result of this tropical cyclone.

Regardless, the pending annual cycle of King Tides will increase the risk of localized flooding mid-week around South Florida.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency Saturday for most of the state’s Gulf coast as the weather system strengthens as it moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center warned Saturday that the system could produce dangerous storm surge, heavy rain and strong winds to Florida’s Gulf coast and Panhandle by midweek.

DeSantis’ declaration covers the Gulf coast from the southwestern city of Fort Myers north through Panama City in the Panhandle. Thirty-three of the state’s 67 counties are covered in the declaration.

The hurricane center says there’s a 70% chance the system will become a tropical storm by Monday and a 90% chance overall. Currently, it would be named “Idalia” if no other tropical storm forms before it. Forecast models do not show the storm’s center approaching the areas of southwest Florida where deadly Hurricane Ian struck last year.

DeSantis said in a statement that he issued his executive order “out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management can begin staging resources and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families for a storm next week.”

“I encourage Floridians to have a plan in place and ensure that their hurricane supply kit is stocked,” he said.

Forecast models have the storm curving to the northeast toward Florida, coming ashore along the Gulf coast north of Tampa near the Big Bend area and then heading diagonally across the state to emerge again in the Atlantic Ocean near southeast Georgia.

So far this year, the U.S. East Coast has been spared from cyclones. But out west, Tropical Storm Hilary caused widespread flooding, mudslides and road closures earlier this month in Mexico, California, Nevada and points to the north.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently said the 2023 hurricane season would be far busier than initially forecast, partly because of extremely warm ocean temperatures. The season runs through Nov. 30, with August and September typically the peak.

The storm was expected to swirl for most of the day above the island of Hispaniola that the Dominican Republic shares with Haiti. Forecasters warned the storm could drop up to 12 inches of rain in the Dominican Republic, with a maximum of 16 inches for the country’s western and central regions. Meanwhile, up to 4 inches of rain are forecast for Haiti, with nearly 8 inches for the country’s eastern regions.

“The population of the Dominican Republic must all be right now, without exception, in their homes, the homes of friends and family, or in shelters,” said Juan Manuel Méndez, emergency operations director.

The Civil Defense identified the man killed as Carlos Marino Martínez, saying he died in the city of San Cristobal after being swept away floodwaters. The agency initially said he was one of its volunteers, but later corrected the information saying it misidentified a uniform he was wearing. They did not provide further details. Two women in that city also were injured following a landslide and were hospitalized, officials said.

More than 300 people were huddled in shelters in the Dominican Republic, where emergency operations officials said they were looking for a 54-year-old man with mental health problems who went missing after he jumped into a creek late Tuesday. Another 280 people were evacuated from their homes to safer ground, with at least six communities cut off by heavy rains, officials said.

The storm also downed several trees and at least two light posts, with dozens of homes affected by floods that turned streets into rushing rivers. Authorities said the roof of one home in San Cristobal collapsed, as did walls of various buildings around the country.

“There’s a lot of damage,” Méndez said.

Meanwhile, authorities in neighboring Puerto Rico, which also was hit by Franklin’s rain, were searching for two scuba divers missing south of the U.S. territory in waters churned up by the storm.

The U.N.’s World Food Program warned Wednesday that some 125,000 people in the Dominican Republic are living in areas that “are extremely vulnerable to landslides and flash floods because they live in poor, overcrowded settlements near rivers, creeks, and lagoons.”

Hércules Urbáez, a 41-year-old father of six who lives in the city of Barahona, where Franklin made landfall, said he and his family went to his mother’s house for safety.

“People have refused to leave,” he said.

On Wednesday afternoon, the storm was centered about 40 miles south of Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It had maximum winds of 40 mph with higher gusts and was moving northward at 13 mph.

Rivers were swelling across the country, with one in the southern coastal city of Barahona lapping at shacks made of tin where one resident used plastic buckets to raise his mattress above his home’s dirt floor.

In the capital of Santo Domingo, José Abott, a 34-year-old graphic designer, monitored the water level of a river near his home via a WhatsApp group: “It always fills with water.”

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Harold weakened into a tropical depression Tuesday night after making landfall in South Texas, bringing strong winds and rain, leaving thousands of homes without power.

In the Caribbean, officials were most concerned about Franklin’s impact in Haiti, which is prone to catastrophic flooding given the country’s severe erosion.

“Haiti is among the most vulnerable countries in the world when it comes to the effects of extreme weather,” said Jean-Martin Bauer, the World Food Program’s director for Haiti. In June, a powerful thunderstorm that unleashed heavy rains left more than 40 people dead across the country.

Prime Minister Ariel Henry had urged Haitians on Tuesday to stock up on water, food and medication.

More than 200,000 people in Haiti have been displaced by gang violence over the past few years: authorities checked up on some of those living on the street or in makeshift shelters.

In the Dominican Republic, officials shuttered schools, government agencies and several airports with at least 25 of the country’s 31 provinces under red alert. On Wednesday, more than 400,000 customers were without power, and dozens of aqueducts were out of service because of heavy rains, affecting more than 1.3 million customers.

Flooding already had been reported on Tuesday in Santo Domingo, and beyond, where residents prepared for heavy rainfall.

“We’re scared of the river,” said Doralisa Sánchez, a government employee who lives near the Ozama River that divides the city. She had to flee her home three times during previous storms.

She hoped Franklin wouldn’t force her to temporarily abandon her home because she said people steal belongings left behind.

The storm worried thousands of Dominicans who live in flood-prone areas.

“When two drops of water fall here, this suddenly becomes flooded,” said Juan Olivo Urbáez, who owns a small business in a community near the Ozama River.

The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands, where up to 3 inches (8 centimeters) of rain was forecast in some areas.

Franklin is the seventh named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. An eighth named storm, Gert, dissipated on Tuesday.

On Aug. 10, the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration updated its forecast and warned that this year’s hurricane season would be above normal. Between 14 to 21 named storms are forecast. Of those, six to 11 could become hurricanes, with two to five of them possibly becoming major hurricanes.

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Tropical Storm Harold formed overnight in the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall on Padre Island in Texas around 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The storm had maximum sustained winds near 50 mph, with higher gusts, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for the mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O’Connor, Texas and a tropical storm watch was in effect for Port O’Connor to Sargent, Texas.

Rain amounts could hit 7 inches in some spots with up to 10 inches coming to northern portions of Mexico.

Harold was expected to steadily weaken as it moves over southern Texas and northern Mexico.

Tropical Storm Franklin

Franklin is the other tropical storm of interest that was forecast to reach the southern coast of Hispaniola on Wednesday, traverse the island and move off of the northern coast and into the southwestern Atlantic late Wednesday or early Thursday.

The storm was about 230 miles south-southwest of Santo Domingo as it continued to drift to the northwest with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph, with higher gusts.

The forecast calls for landfall Wednesday in the Dominican Republic as a tropical storm. The slow forward speed means rain could be a big deal, as over a foot of rain could hit parts of the island. Landslide and mudslide potential remains high.

Tropical storm warnings were issued for portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and a tropical storm watch was in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Franklin was expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with storm total maxima of 6 inches,
across Puerto Rico and Vieques into Thursday. Across portions of Hispaniola, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches, were expected through Wednesday.

Other areas of interest

Meanwhile, what had briefly been Tropical Storm Gert became post-tropical Tuesday morning, forecasters said. No watches or warnings were in effect.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Gert or its remnants should move west-northwestward to northwestward.

Forecasters are also monitoring the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily near the Leeward Islands.

They believe the system could redevelop later this week or the weekend. It has a 20% chance of development over the next seven days.

There is also an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.

A tropical depression could develop for later this week as it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

The system has about a 60% chance of formation over the next seven days.

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Gert formed overnight but was holding on as a tropical depression Monday night. It was located about 320 miles east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and moving west with 30 mph winds, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Short-lived, the NHC believes Gert will dissipate or become post-tropical at any time.

Tropical Storm Franklin

Tropical Storm Franklin had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and was about 275 miles south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic Monday, the NHC said.

Franklin was expected to strengthen before it reaches Hispaniola late Tuesday, the NHC said.

The storm will likely bring more than a foot of rain for Hispaniola and Puerto Rico this week with possible landfall in Hispaniola overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning as a tropical storm.

Tropical storm warnings were in place for the southern coast of Hispaniola which means tropical storm winds are likely within 36 hours.

The biggest impacts will likely be from rain as more than a foot is expected.

Tropical Depression Nine

A system located in the Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression Nine, had winds of 35 mph and was expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by Tuesday.

The system was moving toward the western Gulf of Mexico coastline, and was forecast to move inland over south Texas by midday Tuesday.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for the mouth of Rio Grande to Port O’Connor, Texas, while a tropical storm watch was in effect for Port O’Connor to Sargent, Texas.

Emily

Emily became a tropical storm on Sunday but weakened Monday night. Its remnants are located east of the Leeward Islands and has a low chance of formation within the week if environmental conditions become more conducive for redevelopment.

Areas of interest

The NHC is tracking two areas of interest in the Atlantic.

Forecasters are watching the large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands.

Forecasters believe a tropical depression is expected to form this week. It has about a 40% chance of forming in the next 48 hours, but a 70% chance of formation over the next seven days.

At this time, none of the storms or systems were expected to threaten Florida.

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Wait, no it isn’t. It’s mid-June for goodness’ sake! We’re not supposed to be worrying about vigorous tropical waves rolling off the west coast of Africa and past the Cabo Verde archipelago with a chance of developing into tropical storms and hurricanes this early in the year.

And yet, here we are. Welcome to 2023, the year of hurricane season surprises.

Less than one percent of tropical storms on record have formed between Africa and the Caribbean in the month of June — namely “Trinidad” in 1933, “Ana” in 1979, and “Bret” in 2017. Oddly (isn’t everything odd these days?), if this disturbance gets named it too would be named “Bret.”

I’ve been harping on how off-the-charts hot the sea surface temperatures are in the Atlantic. It is so warm between Africa and the Caribbean now that the current average water temperature of 81.5 °F is the reading normally reached around the peak of the hurricane season on September 1. Tropical cyclones generally need water above 80 degrees to strengthen.

Winds aloft, which typically in June are hostile to fledgling tropical systems, are expected to become tamer as we roll into the upcoming week.

To be able to keep the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season in check despite the heat energy provided by the very warm ocean, we’re going to need to see stronger wind shear. For now, it looks like that inhibiting factor normally provided by the new El Niño phenomenon will be absent for the second half of June in the part of the Atlantic where possible future-Bret could form.

Given these favorable conditions of warm water and little to no wind shear, computer models are confidently forecasting some form of tropical development in that part of the Atlantic basin where we’d normally not be looking at until August.

Seeing reliable global models like the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European (Euro) in agreement lends further credence to the likelihood of it happening. The National Hurricane Center is already giving the disturbance a medium chance of forming by next week.

If a June tropical storm or—gasp—a hurricane does form in the tropical Atlantic, could it hit the Caribbean, Bahamas, or United States? Thankfully, that seems highly unlikely.

A weaker disturbance in the form of an easterly wave or tropical depression might be able to impact the northeastern Caribbean. But a named storm or hurricane would likely veer north thanks to weaker trade winds and the influence of a dip in the jet stream over the western Atlantic Ocean.

The chance of this system tracking all the way to the Bahamas and the U.S. is close to nil.

John Morales is NBC6’s Hurricane Specialist.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Thursday that Tropical Depression Two formed with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

No coastal watches or warnings were anticipated as the depression was expected to remain off shore and be short-lived, forecasters said.

The depression could become a tropical storm Friday morning, but should begin to weaken by Friday night and degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday, the NHC said.

The depression comes as Thursday marks the first official day of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

Regardless of whether the system becomes a named storm, heavy rainfall is forecast for parts of Florida through the weekend as a result.

By this weekend, forecasters say environmental conditions are unfavorable for additional development as the area drifts south and remains offshore in the Gulf.

If it becomes a named system, it would be named Arlene.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a “near-normal” 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, with 12-17 named storms expected according to predictions released May 25.

Of those named storms, five to nine are expected to be hurricanes and one to four could be major hurricanes.

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The National Hurricane Center in Miami reports the area is currently in the central part of the Gulf, with forecasts having it moving across Florida by this weekend and into the Atlantic Ocean.

A 10 percent chance of development into a named storm was forecast over the next two days with a 20 percent chance over the next seven days.

While it’s not expected to become a named storm, the area could bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the state over the next few days.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a “near-normal” 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, with 12-17 named storms expected according to predictions released May 25.

Of those named storms, five to nine are expected to be hurricanes and one to four could be major hurricanes.

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The National Hurricane Center in Miami says the area extends a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas.

Development is not expected with this area, the NHC said. A 10 percent chance is projected over the next five days.

The first day of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is June 1.